COP 27
Present circumstances:
- One of the agreements agreed during this year’s “historic” COP27 climate change summit in Egypt was the establishment of a fund to assist developing countries in recovering from climate-related disasters.
- Even though the decision undoubtedly satiated a long-standing demand of the developing countries, there was little else in the Sharm el-Sheikh meeting’s final resolution that could be viewed as a partially adequate response to what, according to science, is an extremely serious global climate emergency.
- The annual climate meeting has underwhelmed in the past, though, so this is nothing new. COPs have underperformed greatly, especially those from the past 15 years.
- The framework of the Paris Agreement, which requests that each nation submit what it deems to be its best effort, can only lead to a less-than-ideal outcome.
Future temperatures will rise by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius:
- Now it is almost certain that the 1.5 degree Celsius goal will not be met.
- The Sharm el-Sheikh accord acknowledges that in order to retain the prospect of avoiding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by at least 43% from 2019 levels by 2030.
- The reduction hasn’t started yet, which is the problem. In actuality, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. The yet-to-be-determined emissions for 2021 are anticipated to surpass those for 2019 and create a new record.
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) projects that 2022 will be 1.15 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times.
- It may have been even hotter if not for the extraordinarily long-lasting La Nina phase, which is currently in its third year. With temperatures 1.28 degrees Celsius greater than during pre-industrial times, the year 2016 broke the record for warmth.
- There is a 50% chance that the 1.5 degree Celsius warming threshold may be momentarily crossed in the next five years, according to a WMO assessment.
- One of the five years after 2016 was also almost guaranteed to be warmer than the others (93% chance).
- Additionally, the IPCC papers have demonstrated that the question wasn’t whether temperatures will climb by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. It almost certainly will, but whether the world will respond adequately to recover from it after a few years is the real question.
Not all is lost, though:
- The world that is 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer would not be that different from the one we already live in, despite the horrifying imagery it frequently inspires. Nothing that would happen back then isn’t happening right now.
- Naturally, it is anticipated that as temperatures continue to rise, extreme weather events will occur more frequently and with greater intensity. However, the 1.5 degree Celsius barrier by itself is not a special trigger. The 2-degree Celsius cutoff is also not acceptable.
- The effects of climate change are being mitigated by making every attempt to limit temperature increases.
- In fact, according to recent research, even at the current rates of warming, a number of crucial climate tipping points may already have been achieved or are about to do so.
- This could lead to the crossing of other tipping points and the onset of potentially unpredictable, irreversible, and self-sustaining changes in the earth’s climate system.
- The grim scenarios result from our inability to cut greenhouse gas emissions in a timely manner. Frequently, the emphasis on this failure obscures the improvements in global adjustment.
- Over the past ten years, there have been fewer fatalities brought on by climate change-related disasters, mostly as a result of early warning systems, quick responses, and relief activities.
Disasters caused by the climate:
- According to the WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate, and Water Extremes, whose most recent edition was released last year, the number of global climate- or weather-related disasters increased from 711 incidents in the 1970-1979 decade to 3,165 incidents in the 2010-2019 period, an almost five-fold increase.
- However, there was a sharp decline in fatalities, which dropped from over 556,000 in the 1970s to only about 185,000 in the previous decade, a reduction of almost 70%.
- Economic losses increased from roughly 175 billion USD in the 1970s to over 1.4 trillion USD in the 2010s due to an increase in the frequency of catastrophes as well as an increase in the value of the assets and infrastructure.
- For instance, the number of deaths from heat waves and cyclones has fallen by approximately 90% over the past ten years thanks to efficient early warning systems and quick reaction.
- Even while it may be difficult to forecast landslides, avalanches, and cloudbursts, their consequences can still be lessened by taking precautions in high-risk locations.
- The problem is that only around 50% of people on the planet have access to early warning or quick reaction systems.
- In actuality, almost 90% of all deaths from weather- and climate-related disasters occurred between 1970 and 2019 in developing countries.
Comprehensive early warning system:
- Because of this, the most significant news to come out of COP27 may be the recent WMO initiative to extend early warning coverage to all countries within the next five years.
- The programme will likely only cost roughly 3.1 billion USD in total, which is a relatively little quantity of money in light of climate change. Estimates indicate that this investment will help save one to two lives while preventing losses of between 3 and 16 billion USD annually.
- Similar effort has been initiated by the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), a global organisation backed by India that focuses on enhancing early warning systems in small island states.
- Rich nations, who are more focused on getting all countries to reduce their emissions, have not given these adaptation measures nearly enough attention. The root causes are obvious.
- The majority of adaptation efforts would need to be done in underdeveloped regions since they are better able than developing nations to adapt to the changes.
- In addition, unlike carbon reductions, the benefits of adaptation are regional rather than global. Less than 20% of the money that developing countries asked be put toward adaptation in order to support climate action has actually happened.
