Was India’s hot summer of 2023 a portend of things to come
Introduction:
- It’s safe to say that many of us have been eagerly awaiting the monsoon this year, hoping it will end one of the hottest summers on record. With each passing year, the frequency of extreme heatwaves in India has increased, making these months even more uncomfortable.
Details:
- A new study from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reveals a rising trend in the number and duration of heatwaves based on data from March through June from 1961 to 2020.
- This year, heatwaves started as early as March 3, and several places had temperatures that were greater than usual. More days in recent months have reached temperatures beyond 30 degrees Celsius.
- The United Nations’ Sixth Assessment Report. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that many sections of the world will see prolonged dry spells as well as significant rainfall. In recent decades, India has recorded a number of such extreme events.
- A research from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, published in October 2017 found that the frequency of widespread extreme events tripled between 1950 and 2015.
Changes in the climate:
- In India, the typical monsoon patterns have been replaced, among other things, by delayed onset, bursts of intense rain that last only a few hours, and delayed withdrawal.
- Some weather events have also become drier and others wetter as a result of climate change’s effects on the water cycle, which increases evaporation and ultimately increases precipitation.
- While certain areas are growing more susceptible to unexpected droughts, other areas are seeing more precipitation than usual.
- Extreme heat and dry conditions are more likely as a result of continuous global warming and high monsoon rainfall unpredictability, which will have a major effect on India’s agriculture, water resources, and overall economy.
- The high association between land and ocean heatwaves is mostly due to air circulation, an increase in sea surface temperature, and feedback mechanisms that aggravate the severity and duration of extreme temperatures.
What do marine heat waves do?
- The oceans play a significant role in both the creation of monsoon winds and the preservation of the monsoon.
- When high heat warms their waters, they may face cascading effects such as marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, and quicker ice melting at the poles.
- There are periods of time when the temperature is noticeably higher than the region’s seasonal average.
- Six maritime heatwaves were noted in the Indian Ocean over the course of 52 days in 2021. They used to be rare in this water body, but they now occur yearly.
- A low pressure area develops over the Indian subcontinent during the summer when it warms up. As a result, the moisture needed for the monsoon rains is carried by the winds as they come in from the Indian Ocean.
- However, because the winds are directed to locations over the ocean rather than the land when ocean heatwaves occur, rainfall over the land decreases.
Climate-related risk augmentation:
- Amplification, which happens when specific climate-related causes and/or events interact or take place at the same time, increases or exacerbates the risks and effects of climate change generally.
- The warm, dry weather that is putting Canada on course to see its worst-ever wildfire destruction this year is a great example.
- Such amplification happens when El Nio, prolonged hot weather, dry monsoons, and/or ocean heatwaves all occur at the same time, aggravating risks in different industries. It also happens as a result of several feedback loops and connected processes in the earth’s climate system.
- Such a combination will increase food costs while lowering earnings, in addition to having an impact on agricultural productivity, soil moisture, and water availability.
- The risk of thermal power plant failures, wildfires, and tree death can all rise when heatwaves and droughts co-occur.
- The risks could ultimately push fragile and vulnerable systems dangerously close to having catastrophic effects on socio-ecological systems.
Moving forward:
- The growing climate threats emphasise the importance of implementing proactive measures to minimise greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to changing conditions, and enhance resilience in both natural and human systems.
- To create effective adaptation strategies, it is essential to identify and monitor compound event hotspots.
- By understanding and addressing these amplification mechanisms, we can reduce the total risk from climate change and build a more sustainable and resilient future.
