Current Status of Russia Ukraine War
Context:
- Discourse on global power politics has been characterised by simplistic assumptions about the ultimate goal of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The conflict has lasted for almost two years, and there is little indication that it will stop very soon.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is now a propaganda war:
- Propagandists from the West are going all out, calling Russia a weakened force with an imminent defeat—a subtle jab at China, which is defying US dominance in the world.
- Putin’s appeal to China and North Korea for assistance, coupled with his threat to use nuclear weapons, demonstrates the depth of Russia’s downfall.
The war’s effects on Russia:
- The brightest and finest have left. Trade restrictions and sanctions have weakened its economy, particularly the earnings from energy exports.
- The departure of multinational businesses is endangering the nation’s high-tech industries.
- It is anticipated that the economy would not expand in the near future. It will only be able to depend on the extraction of resources.
- Russia’s political climate has become more closed off to opposition and oppressive.
- Fewer nations are supporting Russia in the diplomatic struggle; not even its allies in Central Asia have endorsed Moscow’s policies.
- Putin was forced to miss a number of important international gatherings, such as the G20 and BRICS summits.
- On the other side, Finland and Sweden are about to join NATO, while Ukraine is about to join the EU.
The situation of the Ukrainian resistance and those who back it:
- Whether Ukraine can endure the test of time in light of the US’s mounting war fatigue ($113 billion since 2014), and the Republicans’ current opposition to an additional $24 billion in military aid.
- While the war has undoubtedly brought Europe together, the EU faces a hurdle in the form of the Franco-German divide as it hopes to use Ukraine to spark a new phase of integration and enlargement to transform Europe into a “geopolitical force.”
- France is apprehensive about EU expansion, while Germany is hesitant to arm Ukraine.
- Additionally, the bloc can finally lose patience and turn to political expediency to put a stop to the war.
- The ground is already moving in some noticeable ways. Poland, the closest friend of Ukraine and the country that currently houses 2.6 million Ukrainian refugees, is reconsidering. “stop supplying arms to Ukraine.”
- The first country to renounce its neutrality, Finland, appears to be hesitating in response to Moscow’s gas supply suspension, which would raise living expenses throughout the Nordic region.
- Already, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is being forced to advocate for a global “peace summit” in February of next year out of concern that the Gaza war will divert focus from Ukraine.
- Until mid-December, the EU has requested that Kyiv comply with its requirements (tightening minority laws and fighting corruption) before initiating membership negotiations.
The opposing viewpoint: Russia is genuinely winning the conflict:
- The fact that Putin has finally called NATO’s bluff has thrilled those who dislike the West.
- Russia may acquire further territory if the conflict continues, as it currently controls a sizable chunk of the Donbas and Donetsk.
- It seems improbable that Russia will give up those territories, regardless of what happens on the battlefield.
- This will make it harder for Ukraine to negotiate a peace agreement in the future.
- This entails a protracted state of frozen conflict, a weapons race, and increased defence expenditures, all of which will fall on the rest of Europe.
Has Russian power suffered irreversible damage?
- Even a diminished Russia will remain crucial to European security, regardless of how the war turns out.
- If Putin is able to overcome Ukraine’s opposition, Europe would face more difficulties.
- Rebuilding Ukraine itself would require consistent energy supplies from Russia.
- With a sizable nuclear arsenal and disruptive technologies, Russia will continue to be a potent military force that can tip the geopolitical balance in the world.
- Actually, the Russian military may have learned how to handle NATO’s weapons during this conflict.
- The strategic culture of Russia and its longstanding tradition of perceiving threats in relation to other countries are not to be taken lightly.
- Actually, if the West had not disregarded Moscow’s repeated warnings against NATO expansion, things would not have reached this point.
- As such, it is premature to assume that Russia is permanently weakened.
Russia is experimenting with new methods to project power:
- Although the Russian economy is currently in decline, it has also demonstrated resilience due to its increasing market dominance in the energy sector.
- A historic shift in the balance of power in the world has occurred as a result of Moscow’s sharp reorientation of its economy and foreign policy towards China, the Middle East, India, and Africa.
Russia’s future path:
- Russia will remain strategically bound to Europe in the next years, but the extent to which it asserts its influence will rely on how broadly the US defines its interests around the world.
- Already, it is reclaiming its global sway, particularly in the Middle East.
- Apart from what happens to Ukraine, the Gaza conflict will influence Russia’s foreign policy going forward.
- Although Moscow is aware that the relationship matrix is unbalanced and favours Beijing, it has nevertheless made some tentative moves to strengthen ties with Beijing.
Way Forward:
- India’s official stance on Russia is still based on realism, but watchers and analysts frequently criticise Putin for his “war of choice” and disregard Russia by swiftly drawing conclusions from the West. It would be too soon to write off Russia’s possibilities.
