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08 October 2022 – The Hindu

India Russias Relations

Russia has been India’s reliable ally for a very long time. The connection between India and Russia is one of the cornerstones of Indian foreign policy. Due to India’s propensity to gravitate toward the West and Russia’s growing links with China, recent improvements in the bilateral relations have run against a few minor obstacles. Despite these differences, India and Russia nevertheless enjoy close relationships. This was demonstrated by PM Modi’s visit to Vladivostok for the 5th Eastern Economic Forum and the 20th India-Russia annual conference. Mr. Modi aims to give bilateral ties between the two countries “a new direction, new vigour, and new speed” during his visit as the first Indian Prime Minister to visit the Russian Far East.

What was the status of the two countries’ relations in the post-Soviet era?

In the 1990s, there were major upheavals in both countries.
In 1990, India gave the Soviet Union technical loans. In 1991, it also gave the Soviet Union food loans and a gift of 20,000 tonnes of rice.
Following the collapse of the USSR, India and Russia agreed to a bilateral agreement on military-technical cooperation in 1994 and a new Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in January 1993.

Putin:

Political, economic, and military strategies of the USSR during the Soviet era were constrained by ideological principles.
The Soviet Union’s economic interests came first after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
As a result, the nature of the two nations’ bilateral relations changed.
The bilateral relations between the two countries had to go through logical changes based on shared interests after India’s liberalisation in 1991.
After the USSR collapsed, Russia went through a decade of political and economic instability, but under President Putin’s leadership, the country mounted an amazing comeback.
Russia wanted to regain its former position of power in international affairs.
During this time, oil riches soared, which benefited the newly established Russia.
India and Russia’s relationship, which deteriorated shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union, has recently recovered.
In 2000, the relationship was upgraded to a Strategic Partnership during President Vladimir Putin’s visit.
Since their strategic cooperation was formalised, the leaders of India and Russia have been meeting once a year.
During President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit in 2010, the partnership was elevated to the category of Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.
In both states, the avenues of communication between the two leaderships have been institutionalised.
The Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific and Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC) is co-chaired by the Deputy Prime Ministers of India and Russia, and the Inter-Governmental Commission on Military and Military-Technical Cooperation is co-chaired by the Defense Ministers of both countries (IRIGC-MTC).
These meetings are intended to establish priorities and recurrently evaluate the degree of collaboration between the two countries. They serve as essential platforms to accomplish this.

What problems have developed between India and Russia since 2014?

New developments were made in both nations in 2014:

While Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was forming a new government, the Crimea and Ukraine crises damaged Russia’s relations with the West.
The partnership was clearly in peril despite the declaration of a “special and privileged strategic collaboration” made in 2010.
The goal of $20 billion in trade had not been attained by 2015.
In contrast, trade between China and Russia in 2018 totaled $107.06 billion, and trade between India and the US reached $142.1 billion.
The fact that the US passed Russia to become India’s top arms supplier in 2014, demoting Russia to second position, was another indicator of the deteriorating relations between India and Russia.
In 2016, India became an important defence partner of the US.
It has already signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA, 2016) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA, 2018) with the US before beginning the 2+2 Dialogue in 2018.
In response to these events, Russia changed its stance and began providing China with cutting-edge military equipment, such as the Sukhoi 35 and the S-400 missile defence system, in 2014.
Additionally, the gift of JF-17 Thunder engines and Mi-35 helicopters has helped to forge deeper ties between Pakistan and Russia. Even now, joint military exercises are underway.
Currently, India and Russia’s relationship is founded on shared military and technological interests. Therefore, these findings are quite unsettling.
Recall that despite improving ties between Pakistan and Russia, Moscow sided with India in the Jammu and Kashmir conflict.
Right now, China’s BRI, which Russia has supported, poses the greatest threat to the bilateral relationship.
It seeks to establish a link between the BRI and the EEU (EAEU). India’s connectivity goal includes the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which is having issues.

What positive developments in India-Russia relations have lately taken place?

The aforementioned information shows that India-Russian relations currently face some contrasts and challenges.
Examples of how the relationship between the two nations can develop include the significance of the agreements pertaining to the construction of 12 nuclear power plants in India over the course of the following several decades, the “localised manufacturing” of nuclear power plants built in India to Russian designs, and the conclusion of Rosneft’s crude oil supply to Essar in 2014 and 2015.
Important agreements between the two nations were established in 2016 at the annual conference.
Both the production of the Ka-226T missile and the purchase of the S-400 Triumph Air Defense Missile System are covered by these agreements.
By 2025, $30 billion in investments were planned for both countries.
The nations are now aiming for $50 billion by 2025 as the two-way investments have already surpassed the $30 billion goal.
There were no significant arms agreements in 2017 as a result of India’s termination of the Multi-role Transport Aircraft and its withdrawal from the 2007-started Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft Project.
At the 2018 Annual Bilateral Summit in Sochi, it was emphasised how crucial it is to address the relationship’s deterioration.
The S-400 contract was officially closed at this conference, allaying concerns that it would result in the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act.
This reflects India’s unwavering commitment to maintaining its strategic independence while establishing close ties with Russia.
Russia remained India’s top defence sector arms supplier between 2014 and 2018. However, the overall amount of exports decreased by 42% between 2009 and 2013.
Even though both governments have worked to improve their bilateral ties, differences in foreign policy may yet exist in the future.
The most significant of them, according to Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, is the country’s resistance to the Indo-Pacific concept, which the US, Australia, and Japan embrace in an effort to constrain China.
Although he specifically declared in a speech at Shangri-La in June 2018 that India’s perspective of the Indo-Pacific was built on “inclusivity, openness, and ASEAN centrality and unity,” the comments were made in February 2019.
There are still differences on Afghanistan despite the fact that there has been some clarity as a result of diplomatic talks.
Relations between the two nations had significantly improved by the time Prime Minister Modi travelled to Vladivostok for the 20th annual India-Russia summit and the 5th Eastern Economic Forum.
On this tour, significant occurrences included:
Credit: India pledged to offer credit lines totaling $1 billion to support the development of the Russian Far East (Act Far East Policy).
Route by sea: It has also been suggested that a marine route be used to connect Chennai and Vladivostok. Given that Vladivostok is so near to the Russian border with China, this is notable. This is crucial since India and Russia are collaborating to build nuclear reactors at Kudankulam. It will also reinforce India’s control in the Indo-Pacific region.
Through the Gaganyaan Project, Russia would aid in preparing the Indian astronauts for the human space voyage.
Both countries expressed concern about the possibility of a space arms race during this visit.
According to an agreement between the two countries, the Intergovernmental Agreement on Promotion and Mutual Protection of Investments between India and Russia will be signed as soon as is practical.
The following are some additional global issues on which the two nations work together:
Russia is in favour of India’s request for permanent membership in the UN Security Council.

Terrorism:

In addition, Russia supports India’s membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

What could the future bring?

There are analogies that can be drawn from to improve ties between the two countries.
For instance, where there is a technological and resource complementarity, India and Russia are aggressively promoting the formation of cooperation projects abroad. India, Russia, and Bangladesh have joined together to build the Rooppur nuclear power station in Bangladesh.
A “broad Eurasian partnership” with the EAEU, China, India, Pakistan, and Iran was also urged by President Putin. India should seize this opportunity to raise its profile in Eurasia.
India may help Russia by providing the necessary labour force for sectors like agriculture and construction without getting involved in long-term settling.
In the Russian Far East, there is a pressing demand for labour because of the continued population decline (24% between 1991 and 2015).
Direct action is necessary if the business partnership between the two countries is to succeed.
Use of initiatives like “Make in India” must be for the advantage of both nations.
It is required to give some proposals in the previously selected regions more priority for implementation.
They include new companies, construction projects, shipbuilding, river transportation, high-speed rail networks, space exploration, agriculture, and high-tech products (e.g. space technology, new materials, aviation, agriculture, information and communication technologies, robotics, artificial intelligence, medicine, pharmaceuticals, nanotechnologies, supercomputing technologies, and material sciences).
The two states can work together on matters of mutual interest in international fora like the BRICS, SCO, G20, and East Asia Summit.
However, even in these conditions, India and Russia’s bilateral relations may encounter challenges because of the different foreign policy goals, which go beyond the bilateral level.