Russia Ukraine War
Present situation:
- This week, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, the foreign affairs minister, will travel to and from Russia. Due to India’s outstanding relations with both countries as well as the United States, action by India in diplomatic efforts to resolve the appalling situation in Afghanistan has attracted attention.
India’s viewpoint on the current state of affairs:
- Western media and research tanks have regularly criticised India’s handling of the issue in recent months for lacking moral coherence and strategic consistency in the face of unwarranted Russian aggression.
- India urged both countries to engage in discussions and peacemaking to settle the issue, but refrained from overtly criticising Russian action against Ukraine.
- In an effort to highlight the negative economic implications of the battle on the “Global South,” India avoided embracing Russian aggression, emphasised the value of upholding the UN Charter, emphasised the inviolability of territorial sovereignty, and forbade the use of nuclear weapons.
India’s relations with Russia and the United States diplomatically:
- India is in a stronger position to terminate this war that is affecting the entire world thanks to its positive connections with Russia.
- The European Ukraine crisis threatens the longer-term American obligation to work with India to stabilise the Indo-Pacific region, but the United States will not allow this to happen.
- According to recent reports in US media, India’s diplomatic assistance was crucial in resolving disputes with Ukraine over the grain supply agreement at some crucial points during the nine-month conflict and lowering the likelihood of a war aimed at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in eastern Ukraine.
Can India now play a more significant diplomatic role?
- India is in an odd position given its friendly relations with both Moscow and Washington. However, communication between the US and Russia is not limited to India. Moscow and Washington do not rely on others solely.
- To reassure one another of their no-fighting zones, the defence ministers of the two countries have written to one another frequently. As the likelihood of military strikes in Ukraine gradually decreases throughout the winter, all parties will have the opportunity to pause, regroup, and reevaluate their strategy and tactics.
- Much more significant is the way in which the parties’ political stances are evolving. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the special military operation that was supposed to easily beat Ukraine ended up becoming a horrible misadventure. Russia has suffered significant losses in both personnel and equipment on the battlefield.
- The fact that Russia is focused on destroying Ukrainian cities and periodically threatening nuclear war draws attention to its vulnerability.
- It is challenging for Russia to declare a military “win” in this conflict. In order to maintain his political status and aid Ukraine in acquiring more land, Putin might be forced to accept a fair tie.
- It implies that there will be a method to achieve peace in order to put an end to this expensive conflict. Through India’s diplomatic channels, both nations have a higher opportunity of coming to a consensus.
Effects of the conflict for Western nations, which may provide a temporary calming of the situation:
- The West assumed that once Moscow began its conflict with Ukraine, the severe sanctions it had placed on Russia would lead the Russian economy to collapse.
- The sanctions are starting to have an impact on Western society, but Russia is still standing.
- Political support for a swift resolution of the conflict is expanding across Europe as its financial and energy costs rise.
- A strengthening of the polarisation within the US Congress following this week’s midterm elections could cast doubt on American foreign policy in general and the approach taken toward Ukraine in particular.
- Even while these modifications would not have a negative effect on US strategy, Washington is starting to reconsider. This week, Washington pressed for more latitude in Zelenskyy’s approach to talks with Putin and provided Kyiv with critical one-on-one counsel.
Conclusion:
- According to the lessons of combat, the opportunity for diplomacy only arises when the situation on the battlefield is hopeless.
- When the moment arrived, perhaps nine months had gone since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the coming weeks, both sides may engage in one or two major military manoeuvres before starting to think about other negotiation strategies.
- The pressure to communicate does not necessarily ensure a swift conclusion. Simply expressed, the issue has developed to the point where diplomacy may be more beneficial.
- Despite the fact that it cannot play a large role in bringing about peace in Ukraine, India’s diplomacy can assist efforts to bring about peace there in a number of small but effective ways.
