The US-China Thaw
Current Situation:
- India’s Prime Minister will visit the United States from June 21 to 24, and both countries are reportedly considering “consecrating” their relationship in light of a closer convergence of interests in Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
- At the same time, the US and China seem to be moving closer to a detente. Following months of effort, what is perceived as an effort by the US administration to improve tense relations with China.
US outreach initiatives:
- After a Chinese high-altitude balloon appeared over the US and was finally shot down on instructions from President Joe Biden, Blinken, the US Secretary of State, cancelled a planned trip to China in February.
- China asserted that the balloon was a research airship that had veered off course, contrary to the Pentagon’s assertion that it was an espionage device.
- Since the Covid-19 outbreak, tensions between the US and China have been particularly acute. It didn’t help that China believed the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue was an attempt to restrict it in the Indo-Pacific, and that the US was taking a proactive stance towards Taiwan with Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit in August 2022.
- However, the US has worked to reschedule Blinken’s visit for the past few months despite the Chinese playing hard to get. Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu, who has been sanctioned by the US, declined to meet with Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin during the annual Shangri La Dialogue last week.
- A senior White House official claimed both sides “have sought to increase high-level engagement in order to maintain channels of communication” and “manage competition” in a background news briefing. Despite being “in rivalry” with China, the US “does not seek conflict or confrontation
The nature of the détente:
- Even while proxy wars took place in the various domains of influence of the superpowers, the détente, as it came to be known, eased tensions and ushered in a time of collaboration.
- In order to avoid a nuclear exchange during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the US and USSR agreed on a modus vivendi.
- An accommodation with China may resemble the one the US struck with the Soviet Union, according to Cold War strategist Henry Kissinger, one of the original architects of the détente.
- An important aspect of the US-China relationship is economic involvement.
- In 2022, bilateral commerce was close to $700 billion. China is the country from which the US imports the most. China has always been a leading investment destination for American businesses, but this may be changing suddenly.
Indian viewpoint:
- A shared understanding of China’s ascent has brought the US and India closer together over the past few years. The Doklam impasse in 2018 and the PLA incursions into eastern Ladakh in 2020 prompted India to accept the Quad and the US Indo-Pacific policy.
- India is seen by the US as being crucial to its efforts to forge a regional alliance against China. However, how would a strengthening of US-China relations affect the region in which India shares the longest land border with China?
- India cannot allow China to define its broad-spectrum strategic alliance with the US, according to former ambassador to China Ashok Kantha
- He declared: “Any attempt at accommodation can only be restricted to tactical measures, putting up guardrails and minimising the risk of armed conflict, which neither party desires. The disagreements between the US and China are deep-seated and fundamental. Neither party is eager to address the relationship’s structural issues.
Conclusion:
- India requires a counterbalancing strategy against China that involves cooperating with the US and other nations who have similar worries about the nation while also maintaining its independence.
- The boundaries of such strategic alignment, the extent to which India is willing to go, and how to manage expectations on both sides must all be made clear.
