Population Control in India
India’s and the world’s population growth status:
- According to United Nations (UN) figures, the pace of population growth is dropping behind replacement rates in more than half of the world’s countries, and by the end of the century, the global population growth rate is predicted to be zero—possibly for the first time.
- A recent Bloomberg report suggests that the Covid-19 epidemic may have accelerated the approaching peak of a global population drop by at least ten years.
- According to scientists, the epidemic has slowed the already declining worldwide birth rates from the United States (US) to China.
- India’s population is expected to grow by a multiple of 1.09 between 2021 and 2031, according to United Nations demographic forecasts.
- India’s population will begin to decline in 2060 as a result of the fertility rate declining below replacement levels.
Theories of population control:
Malthusian Principle:
- Malthus projected that global population growth would outpace that of food production in his book Principle of Population (1798).
- He claimed that while food supply increased more slowly in an arithmetic ratio than the population did in an exponential manner (geometric growth).
- Malthus was ultimately disproved, though, when advances in agricultural technology led to net food surpluses in nations like India.
Large-Pull Theory:
- Population expansion has been shown by Harvard economist Harvey Leibenstein to degrade incomes.
- This theory’s primary economic justification was that if per capita income is low, then individuals are too impoverished to save.
- Low savings would indicate that the economy is not expanding because investment is assumed to be equal to savings.
Concerns Related To Population Control In India:
- These theories helped us understand population economics more, but many of them ultimately proved to be very flawed. The following arguments illustrate how this is the case.
- High Population Doesn’t Always Mean Poor Economy A large population is not always detrimental to the economy.
The effects of population control efforts will be:
- Simply said, there wouldn’t be enough people to support the economy, there would be a sizable, unproductive elderly population to care for, and the government might not have enough money to pay for pensions.
- There would be a deindustrialization as a result.
- Distributional Aspects of Population: In a 1937 lecture titled “Some Economic Consequences of a Declining Population,” John Maynard Keynes discussed this topic.
- His main concern was low investment demand in areas where businesses meet a declining consumer demographic.
China’s Example:
- In the 1980s, China enforced a one-child rule, but as its population grew older (as a result of the one-child rule), China abandoned the old rule and urged couples to have additional children.
The Indian religious landscape:
- The religious division surrounding population management in India makes it an even more complicated problem.
- In India, a certain minority is frequently singled out for attack using the bogey of population increase, either directly or indirectly. The population control strategy will have an effect on social harmony.
Effects on the Poor:
- The impoverished have higher total fertility rates (TFR), which decline as wealth rises.
- Therefore, entitlement-based population control policies will ultimately harm the poor, who most need such assistance.
Patriarchy:
- Higher fertility rates are significantly influenced by patriarchy-driven preferences for male offspring.
- The restriction to two children is thought to have negatively impacted the population’s sex ratio by acts like female foeticide, etc.
Steps to Take:
- Focus on Demographic Dividend: Rather than being concerned about its demographic dividend, India needs to concentrate on utilising it.
- India is in a unique position in history to take use of its population advantage and achieve its economic objectives.
- In 2021, 53.6% of India’s population will be under the age of 29, according to government predictions. India has a population that is more than 25% younger than 14.
- Instead of being concerned about India’s demographic dividend, our policymakers would do well to concentrate on using it.
- Increasing Skill Set: India is currently far from providing young Indians with the greatest prospects conceivable.
- For instance, statistics from the All India Survey on Higher Education revealed that the higher education industry in India is plagued by severe structural disparities.
- Depending on the skill sets it develops, this young population can either become incredibly productive or unproductive.
- Focusing on Women: Women’s education matters in terms of both fertility rates and the age of the mother at the time of the birth of the first child. Education aids in reducing female infertility and preterm birth.
Conclusion:
- India is in a demographic transitional era when mortality rates are falling and fertility rates will follow suit within the next two to three decades. Given that India still has a positive growth rate, there is room to slow down population growth, but our population strategy should consider the wider ramifications of population stagnation.
