Population control in India
Theories of population control:
- Malthus projected that the rate of global population growth will outpace that of food production in his book Principle of Population (1798).
- He claimed that while food supply increased more slowly in an arithmetic ratio compared to population expansion, which surged exponentially (geometric growth).
- Malthus was ultimately shown to be incorrect as agricultural technology developed and nations like India experienced net food surpluses.
- The Big-Push Theory of Harvard economist Harvey Leibenstein states that profits frequently fall as a result of population expansion.
- This theory’s primary economic justification was that if per capita income is low, people will not be able to save.
- Low savings would indicate that the economy is not growing if investment were equal to savings.
India’s population control issues:
- Although many of these hypotheses proved to be incredibly incorrect, they nonetheless increased our grasp of population economics. The reasons why this is the case are shown in the arguments that follow.
- Not all population growth is a sign of a struggling economy. The economy isn’t always negatively impacted by a huge population. Initiatives for population management will have the following effects:
- Simply put, there wouldn’t be sufficient employment to support the economy, there would be a sizable, unproductive elderly population to care for, and there wouldn’t be sufficient funds in the government coffers to pay for pensions.
- There would be a deindustrialization as a result.
- Aspects of population distribution: This topic was explored by John Maynard Keynes in his 1937 lecture, “Some Economic Consequences of a Declining Population.”
- His main concern was the absence of investment demand in areas where businesses must service a declining customer base.
- China as a Case Study In the 1980s, China established a one-child restriction, but as a result of the restriction, the population of the country grew older. As a result, China abandoned the old legislation and encouraged couples to have additional children.
- The religious divides present in India further worsen the problem of population management.
- In India, the fallacy of population increase is frequently used to harm a certain minority, whether on purpose or unintentionally. The population control strategy will have an impact on social peace.
- Total fertility rates (TFR), which are greater among the less fortunate and decline as earnings rise, have an impact on the disadvantaged.
- Therefore, population control policies based on entitlements will ultimately harm the poor, who most need such assistance.
- Patriarchy: Higher fertility rates are mostly a result of the patriarchal preference for a male progeny.
- The restriction to two children is alleged to have had a negative impact on the population’s sex ratio by encouraging crimes like female foeticide, etc.
How to Continue:
- Focus on the Demographic Dividend: Rather than fretting about its demographic dividend, India should focus more on using it.
- India is in a unique position to take use of its population advantage and achieve its economic objectives.
- In 2021, 53.6% of India’s population will be under the age of 29, according to government estimates. In India, more than 25% of the population is under the age of 14.
- Instead of being concerned about India’s demographic dividend, our policymakers would do well to concentrate on utilising it.
- Developing Skill Set: In India today, young people do not have access to the best possibilities available.
- For instance, statistics from the All India Survey on Higher Education revealed that the higher education industry in India suffers from significant structural disparities.
- Depending on the skill sets it develops, this young population may either become incredibly productive or ineffective.
- Focusing on Women: The level of education among women affects both fertility rates and the age of the mother at the time of the birth of the first child. Preterm birth rates and female infertility are reduced with education.
Conclusion:
- Given that India is currently going through a demographic transition, fertility rates and death rates will both fall over the course of the next two to three decades. India still has a positive growth rate, so there is room to slow down population growth, but our demographic strategy needs to include the longer-term impacts of population stagnation.
