16 February 2024 – The Hindu

Red Sea Threat Is Growing

• According to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MoCI), growing tensions in the Red Sea and persistent drought problems at the Panama Canal are causing disruptions to India’s exports to Europe, particularly low-value goods like textiles and agricultural. Concerns regarding possible effects on international trade were addressed in response at an interministerial conference presided over by the Union Commerce Secretary and including important ministries such as External Affairs, Defence, Shipping, and the Department of Financial Services (DFS) under the Ministry of Finance.
• Due to increased security concerns in the Red Sea and Panama Canal, goods were rerouted through the Cape of Good Hope. This resulted in delayed sailings and a notable increase in freight charges to Europe.

About Red Sea:

• The Arabian Peninsula borders the Red Sea on the east and northern Africa on the west. The Red Sea is a semi-enclosed tropical basin.
• The basin is long and narrow, spanning from the Indian Ocean to the southeast and the Mediterranean Sea to the northwest.
• It splits into the Gulf of Suez and the Gulf of Aqaba at its northernmost point. The Gulf of Suez is connected to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal.
• Through the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, it is connected to both the Gulf of Aden and the outer Indian Ocean at its southernmost point.
• There is no significant influx of freshwater, and it is encircled by desert or semi-arid regions.

What problems exist now with the Panama Canal and the Red Sea?

• About 200 nautical miles off the coast of Gujarat, a drone assault struck the chemical tanker MV Chem Pluto.
• The chemical tanker MV Chem Pluto is operated by the Netherlands, owned by Japan, and flying the Liberian flag. It was scheduled to arrive in New Mangalore, India, having departed with crude from Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia.
• Allegedly Involved Entity: Houthi rebels from Yemen are thought to have been responsible, citing their protest of Israel’s operations in Gaza.
• In addition, the Houthi rebels and the Yemeni government are involved in a ten-year civil battle.

Panama Canal:

• Problem: Over 50% less cargo passes through the 51-mile section of the Panama Canal due to drought conditions.
• The drought in Panama is partly caused by a naturally occurring El Nino climate trend linked to warmer-than-normal water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
• Infrastructure Gaps: The operating difficulties facing the Panama Canal and the trade shift towards other routes, such as the Red Sea, have brought up a number of issues that need to be addressed right away.
• Problems with decreasing depth and dredging have surfaced, making it difficult for big ships to navigate. It is imperative to take immediate action to solve these issues.
• These two routes rank among the busiest worldwide.

What Effects Do the Above Issues Have on India?

Effect on Commodities in Agriculture:

• Exporters of vital goods like tea and basmati rice are worried about the disruptions to this important trading route.
• If the Red Sea route is disrupted, shipping through the Cape of Good Hope could result in a 10–20% increase in the price of Indian agricultural products.

Effect on the Trade in Petroleum and Oil:

• Major shipping firms have avoided the Red Sea, which has resulted in a reduction in global oil and petroleum flows. India continues to purchase oil from Russia, though, untouched.
• India’s reliance on Russian oil—which is seen as Iran’s ally—has not changed despite the Red Sea crisis.

More Expensive Export to the US:

• Ships sailing from Asia to the US are being forced to use the Suez Canal due to a water shortage in the Panama Canal and the resulting drought. This means that the Suez Canal route takes six extra days to complete than the Panama Canal route.

The Panama Canal is Not a Viable Alternative:

• While the 100-year-old Panama Canal connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and is not a very practical alternative for India, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait leads to the Suez Canal in the Red Sea region, connecting Asia to Europe.

Which elements play a part in the current crisis?

Issues with Contemporary Weaponry:

• The situation around the Red Sea is getting more complicated, which affects trade and stability.
• The employment of cutting-edge weapons calls into question the efficacy of international defence cooperation, giving rise to worries about trade disruption and assertions of high interoperability.

Modification of Piracy Methods:

• Like with previous piracy issues, rebels have been able to adapt to modern technologies due to the tardiness of international reactions.
• The ‘High-Risk Area’ has been expanded, strategies including hijacking ships and using them as mother ships have been employed, and the maritime traffic has been impacted by rerouting and higher insurance costs.

State Assistance in the Spread of Missiles:

• Concerns regarding the proliferation of missile technology are raised by the Houthi rebels’ use of drones and Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles (ASBMS), as well as possible state help from China and Iran.
• The problem is made more complex by the direct or indirect connection to China for the supply of ASBMS.

Sluggish Reaction to Prosperity Guardian Operation:

• Allies and allies have responded tepidly to the U.S.-launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, which is supposed to operate under the Combined Maritime Force.
• There are concerns regarding the United States’ capacity to lead global cooperative institutions given the independence with which NATO allies like France, Italy, and Spain conduct their affairs.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia’s Absence from the Event:

• Complexities are revealed by Saudi Arabia’s withdrawal from the operation, which was probably done to prevent bad effects on Yemeni discussions and relations with Iran.
• Maybe the UAE is reluctant because they don’t want to be seen as supporting Israel.
• India functions independently even though it is a full member; this may be because of its ties to Iran.

International Maritime Security Division:

• The failure of Operation Prosperity Guardian to operate as a coalition reveals differences among like-minded countries that uphold the freedom of navigation guaranteed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
• The fact that even American allies like Japan and Australia have not joined highlights the divergence in views on maritime security and a rule-based international order.

What Steps Can India Take to Lessen Its Vulnerability to These Problems?

• Joint Maritime Security Initiative: Offer a cooperative security framework that includes intelligence sharing, coordinated patrols, and joint drills with major Red Sea parties (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Yemen).
• Install integrated radar and drone surveillance systems along India’s western coastline to improve early threat detection and response capabilities. This is an example of how to deploy advanced surveillance systems.
• Negotiate Preferential Access: Speak with Panama Canal authorities about possible toll reductions for particular routes or preferential transit for Indian vessels.
• Alternative Trade Routes Being Examined: The Ben Gurion Canal Project, a 160-mile sea-level canal that would connect the Mediterranean Sea with the Gulf of Aqaba and avoid the Suez Canal, has recently regained attention.
• Designation of the Houthis as Global Terrorists: The United States will begin designating the Houthis as a specifically designated global terrorist organisation in the middle of February, which may prevent them from accessing the international banking system.
• This action is taken in spite of the fact that Saudi Arabia warned of the Houthi threat and the group was previously taken off the US terror list. India can work with other like-minded nations to fend off these challenges.
• Methodical and Cooperative Approach: The Houthi rebels challenge US domination in the world and take advantage of national divisions. As with anti-piracy measures, tackling the weapon supply becomes critical.
• Because of the differences in the situation in Yemen, measures must be carefully considered in order to preserve stability and avoid a state-on-state conflict.
• Preventing Yemen from Become a Battleground: It is imperative to establish a feasible final state by impeding the Houthis’ emergence as a legitimate state actor. This underscores the need of avoiding Yemen from becoming another Lebanon.
• Encouraging Export Credit: The MoCI has directed DFS to guarantee a steady flow of credit to exporters, since they are worried about the halt on shipments because of exorbitant freight and surcharges.
• Preserving Buffer Stocks: The Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers promised that Red Sea tensions wouldn’t cause India to run out of fertiliser.
• It said that the nation has enough supplies to satisfy the needs of the next kharif season.
• A complex problem is presented by the Houthi rebels’ growing hostility in Yemen and their attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. The rebels’ deployment of sophisticated weapons, like as drones and ballistic missiles meant to destroy ships, highlights their capabilities and raises questions about possible state help, especially from China and Iran. The need for a workable and feasible end state that keeps Yemen from becoming a protracted battlefield is highlighted by the need for a cautious and measured approach as the situation develops in order to stop further deterioration.