Virtual summit virtual silence
Context:
- India’s inability to provide a convincing argument for attending a fictitious SCO conference exposes New Delhi’s foreign policy tilt towards the group.
About:
- The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) conference was held virtually, but India’s foreign minister, Vinay Kwatra, fiercely argued on July 4 that this does not infer, hint at, or imply that the goals we had for the SCO summit have been compromised.
- He did not go into detail about why the meeting was not held in person or with hybrid technologies, though.
- Kwatra’s inability to make even one convincing case for a virtual summit is evidence that India is veering away from the strategies that got it accepted as a full member of the SCO in 2017.
The root cause is China’s behaviour:
- India’s interests in the SCO have undoubtedly had to be reevaluated in light of China’s initiatives towards India in 2020 and the developing structure of the international order.
- This is clear from Mr. Modi’s tough stance on matters important to India (terrorism and connectivity), where it genuinely differs with China and Pakistan on a basic level, as well as the decision to conduct a virtual summit.
- Even while China and Pakistan refuse to adjust their positions on the subject of terrorism, the Central Asian Republics remain very concerned about terrorist groups using Afghanistan.
- The organization’s top preoccupation, connectivity, has left India distinctively alone within the SCO, nevertheless.
- The prime minister reaffirmed India’s position that national sovereignty should be respected in all connectivity endeavours.
- His target was the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the BRI’s flagship project that infringes on Indian sovereignty.
The Eurasian game and the BRI:
- The negative effects of the BRI haven’t dampened SCO members’ excitement for it.
- India must therefore be aware of the risk that, with Pakistan’s active support, China will encircle Eurasia and cut it off from the continent.
- The BRI is a tool for Chinese expansionism, thus India shouldn’t support it, but it still needs to find methods to keep close links with Eurasia.
- No matter how admirable the effort, promoting Buddhist heritage won’t cause the SCO members to turn towards India or halt their expanding ties to China.
- Additionally, the Iranian Chabahar project has not advanced as needed.
- Although it is a difficult situation to handle, India has to devote considerably more time and resources to establishing connectivity through Iran.
- If one wants to play the Eurasian game, even on the thinnest of margins, they must maintain active air lines with the Central Asian Republics and have a realistic perspective on Afghanistan.
No news has been reported on the Ukraine war:
- The SCO Declaration did not make any mention of the Ukrainian crisis, as was to be expected.
- It was not mentioned in the summit declarations from China, Pakistan, or India.
- Modi was able to avoid meeting any of the leaders in person, including Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan, thanks to the virtual summit.
- This prevented the negative effects brought on by the SCO Foreign Ministers meeting in Goa in May 2023.
- India has to demonstrate its current position in Eurasia and with its western neighbours in order to avoid issues and embarrassments like those brought on by Mr. Putin’s reputation in India.
Conclusion:
- Now that Mr. Xi and possibly Mr. Putin will attend the BRICS conference in South Africa in August, all eyes will be on that event. Many people want to prevent any danger of muddying the waters before India’s big moment in the diplomatic spotlight—the G-20 gathering in Delhi in September—by waiting to see if India travels to South Africa.
