Iran Saudi Deal
Present circumstances:
- With the objective of safeguarding long-term economic interests and building political influence in the region to rival the role that the United States has traditionally played, China recently brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
How China’s position is expected to improve as a result of the agreement:
- Once the National People’s Congress officially approved President Xi Jinping’s third term, the agreement was made public on March 9.
- With the Iran-Saudi deal, Xi’s new 24-character campaign for China appeared to get off to an explosive start: Be calm and determined; pursue progress and stability; be proactive and go for successes; united under the Communist Party; daring to battle.
- Earlier In Yemen, where Iran backs the Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia leads a coalition of Gulf states with US assistance, the two countries have been at war through proxies since 2014. A six-month ceasefire was brokered by the UN and put into effect in April 2022. As of last October, fighting has not resumed.
- All parties expect that the accord agreed in Beijing will lead to a sustainable peace in Yemen and an end to the proxy conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Lebanon, Syria, and other nations in the region, according to the agreement.
- It’s interesting to note that China signed the “joint trilateral statement” and is projecting itself almost as a guarantee of the terms: resumption of diplomatic relations and reopening embassies and missions within two months; respect for the sovereignty of states and non-interference in internal affairs of states.
The accords aim to mend Saudi Arabia’s relations with Iran:
- Both Saudi Arabia and Iran had compelling justifications for mending their ties.
- These include the strained ties with the Biden Administration for Saudi Arabia, the absence of American security guarantees against Iran, which the Trump administration made clear after the Houthis successfully attacked its oil facilities in 2019, and China’s expanding influence in West Asia at a time when American engagement in the region is waning.
- Iran, which signed a long-term strategic agreement with China in 2021, faced a number of difficulties, including the isolation brought on by the nuclear sanctions, the alliance of archenemy Israel with the UAE and Bahrain in the Abrahamic accords, and its own domestic problems with the uprising of women against hijab rules.
- The relations between Iran and Kuwait were normalised last August. Next was Saudi Arabia.
World’s response:
- Notwithstanding its poor relations with China, the US welcomed the accord, saying that as long as it resulted in permanent peace, it didn’t matter who mediated it.
- Also, it made an effort to minimise the impression of declining US influence in the area. The ruling class in America is betting that this deal between the “three autocracies” won’t hold up.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s foreign policy. Netanyahu positioned himself as the only Israeli leader capable of forging an alliance with the Arab world to confront Iran and claimed responsibility for the 2020 Abrahamic Accords.
- By accusing his ultra-right-wing government of alienating its partners in the Arab world, opposition figures claim that the new accord has made Netanyahu’s domestic political issues worse.
India’s stance for the last seven days:
- India waited a week before commenting on the accord that its largest opponent in a region where it has spent a lot of diplomatic effort over the past ten years brokered. Like the rest of the world, India was taken aback by China’s new persona.
- India’s stance on the agreement is unknown. We have read about this in the papers, a MEA official countered. India has long-standing interests in several West Asian countries and excellent connections with them. India has traditionally favoured dialogue and diplomacy to resolve disputes, it is also stated.
Conclusion:
- China’s high-profile diplomacy in the region would surely have an effect on the I2U2 (Israel-India-UAE-US) coalition.
- It exhorts India to deepen its relations to the region while avoiding American interference (like with Iran) and in ways that highlight its ties to other civilisations and cultures as well as the positive contributions of the Indian diaspora.
