20 April 2024 – The Hindu

Middle East Instability

• Iran used more than 300 projectiles, including more than 120 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and almost 170 drones, to launch a massive strike on Israel. It was often believed that this action was taken in revenge for a deadly attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria.
• Beyond earlier clashes between Israel and Hamas, the incident denotes a major uptick in the continuing conflict between Iran and Israel. This incident emphasises the possibility for more conflict in the Middle East and draws attention to the growing tensions between two of the most adamant rivals in the area.

What is the Iran-Israeli relationship’s historical background?

Iran-Israel Ties Prior to 1979:

• One of the first nations in the area to acknowledge Israel upon its creation in 1948 was Iran.
• The first Arab-Israeli war broke out in 1948 as a result of the Arab governments’ resistance to Israel. Iran did not participate in that war, and following Israel’s victory, it forged relations with the Jewish state.
• As to a Brookings Institute report, Israel implemented the “periphery doctrine” during the tenure of its first prime minister, David Ben Gurion, to fight Arab hostility by building ties with Middle Eastern countries that are predominantly Muslim and non-Arab. This tactic centred on forming alliances with countries that shared a pro-Western stance and felt alone in the area, such as pre-revolutionary Iran and Turkey.
• Iran was controlled by Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi from 1941 until 1979, and he had a pro-Western foreign policy. Iran kept diplomatic links with Israel and even continued to supply oil to Israel throughout this time, despite facing an economic embargo from Arab states.

The Revolution of 1979:

• Iran became a religious state after the Islamic Revolution of 1979 toppled the Shah. Israel was now viewed by the authorities as an occupying force on Palestinian territory.
• Ayatollah Khomeini, the supreme leader of Israel in Iran, referred to the United States as the “Great Satan” and Israel as the “Little Satan,” viewing both as parties meddling in the area.
• Iran also aimed to increase its influence in the area by opposing Israel and Saudi Arabia, the two superpowers and US allies.

After 1979, a Shadow War:

• The relationship between the two nations deteriorated as a result. Despite never having engaged in a direct military conflict, Iran and Israel have both tried to harm the other through limited strategic strikes and proxies.
• To stop itself from developing nuclear weapons, Israel briefly targeted a number of institutions and nuclear scientists in the early 2010s.
• It is thought that the US and Israel developed the harmful computer malware Stuxnet in 2010. It was the “first publicly known cyberattack on industrial machinery” and was directed towards Iran’s nuclear plant in Natanz, targeting a uranium enrichment facility.
• Meanwhile, Iran is thought to be behind the financing and backing of a number of anti-US and anti-Israel violent organisations in the region, including Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• Because of this support, worries about a confrontation or a growing conflict have surfaced in recent months.

What Significant Occurrences Set Up Iran’s Attack on Israel?

• Withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal: In 2018, Israel celebrated President Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from Iran’s nuclear deal with other world powers, referring to it as “a historic move” after years of campaigning against it.
• Iran’s Army General assassinated: Israel rejoices in 2020 after an American drone strike in Baghdad results in the death of General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ foreign branch. Iran retaliates by attacking US military bases in Iraq with missiles.
• Attack by Hamas Missiles: The terrorist organisation backed by Iran, Hamas, launched a missile attack on Israel in October of 2023. Israel attacked Gaza with airstrikes in retaliation.
• Israel Raids and Attacks Medical Facilities: In November 2023, Israel began raiding and attacking medical facilities because it was believed that Hamas was carrying out its warfare from these hospital structures.
• Red Sea Incident of the Houthi organisation: In November 2023, the Houthi organisation, which is located in Yemen and is supported by Iran, made a helicopter landing on the Galaxy Leader cargo ship while it was travelling in the Red Sea. This initiated the ‘Red Sea Crisis,’ which ultimately resulted in problems with the supply system.
• Israel’s Ground Offences: In December 2023, Israel stepped up its ground offensives in the Gaza Strip quickly. As a result, both the death toll and the number of refugees rose. India urged the warring parties to reach a “early and durable resolution.”
• Airstrike on the Iranian Embassy: Seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard officers, including two senior commanders, are killed in what is believed to be an Israeli air strike on the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus. Israel did not acknowledge or refute its culpability.
• Iran’s Missile Attack on Israel: Iran attacked Israel with missiles in April of 2024. Allegedly, the attack happened in retaliation for an alleged Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria. This was the first time Iran had attacked Israel directly from its own soil.
• Israel’s Multi-Layer Air Defence: According to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), 99% of Iran’s inbound rockets were intercepted by the Israeli air defence system. Israel was also defended by the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and other Middle Eastern friends.

How the World Might Be Affected by the Iran-Israel War?

Potential Israeli Reaction Could Heighten Regional Escalation:

• Retaliation cannot be completely excluded from the decision-making process, given the prevalent Israeli perception that an Iran with nuclear weapons poses an existential threat to Israel.
• The possibility of regional escalation increases if diplomatic attempts to reduce tensions or find a peaceful solution are unsuccessful and leave armed action as the only choice.

Possibility of Upsetting Oil Sources:

• Iran ranks third among the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) crude oil producers. There will be a significant disruption in the supply of crude oil prices if the tensions between Iran and Israel worsen.
• Given that India imports more than 80% of its crude oil requirements and is the third-largest consumer of crude oil, this will negatively impact the attitude of the Indian share market.

Increase in Capital Outflow and Inflation:

• Commodity prices will rise if geopolitical tensions rise going forward because of supply interruptions. Geopolitical tension will keep the world’s inflation rate high since it will impact the price of commodities including copper, zinc, aluminium, nickel, and crude oil.
• Investor caution is likely as a result of these worries, and they may decide to shift their funds from riskier investments like Indian equities to safer alternatives like gold (bullion).
• Reduced corporate profitability and increased uncertainty could result in falling bond prices, rising lending costs for businesses, and declining stock markets.

Travel and Trade Disturbances:

• In addition to the impact on oil prices, the possibility of an all-out conflict between Iran and Israel might also have an impact on trade and travel. The maritime and aviation industries might be affected.
• In actuality, the airspaces of a number of nations in the region, including Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon, were briefly closed and eventually reopened, but with limitations.
• Experts have predicted that the resumption of hostilities between Iran and Israel will impair India’s exports to Europe.

India’s Strategic Conundrum:

• India faces difficulties on the operational and policy fronts as a result of its long-standing strategic ties to Israel and Iran.
• India cherishes its strategic alliance with Israel, which covers information sharing, technology transfer, and defence cooperation. India and Iran do, however, still have historical and commercial links that include energy imports and infrastructure development.
• To protect its interests, such as energy security and the welfare of its diaspora, India aspires to keep the Middle East stable.

What Are Some Potential Ways to Defuse the Iran-Israeli Conflict?

Two-State Solution and Durable Ceasefire:

• Israel should obey UN resolutions to end the seventy-year conflict by achieving a two-state solution, accept a sustainable truce in Gaza as soon as feasible, and open its borders to international humanitarian aid.
• The only practical path forward for the region’s long-term security, peace, and stability is the two-state solution. Although both parties are aware of the difficulties and possibilities, the goal is not simple.

Conversation and Diplomacy:

• A long-lasting ceasefire between Israel and Iran needs to be mediated by an international effort. Finding common ground and fostering trust could be achieved by encouraging both nations to hold direct discussions led by international mediators.
• Direct negotiations between Iran and Israel might be arranged by an impartial third party, such the UN or the European Union.

Taking Care of Nuclear Proliferation Issues:

• In order to assure compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran could abide by its conditions and permit international inspections of its nuclear sites.
• Israel could agree to refrain from using force against Iranian nuclear facilities in exchange for acknowledging Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy.

Regional Collaboration:

• Encouraging collaboration between Iran and Israel within the context of regional institutions, such the Gulf Cooperation Council or the Arab League, may assist in addressing common security issues and promoting stability in the Middle East.
• The creation of a thorough regional security architecture that takes into account the worries of all parties involved in the Middle East could promote stability and lessen the possibility of hostilities between Israel and Iran.

Future Prospects for the Middle East:

• Regional countries may collaborate to create a comprehensive security framework for the Middle East that includes agreements on arms control, steps to boost confidence, and peaceful dispute resolution procedures.
• It might be beneficial to establish an atmosphere that is supportive of peace and reconciliation to address underlying problems such territorial conflicts, historical grudges, and religious fanaticism.

Relationship Normalisation:

• Iran and Israel might follow the path of peace agreements between Israel and several Arab governments, such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and work towards normalising diplomatic ties by swapping ambassadors, reopening embassies, and encouraging people-to-people exchanges.
• The Global South and Global Governance are impacted by the continued unrest in the Middle East. As such, it is imperative that the world community press all involved parties to desist from using violence and give diplomatic negotiations top priority in order to find answers. It is essential to adopt sensible and well-balanced policies in order to mitigate the crisis in the region and avert long-term unrest.