Safeguarding the Nuclear Future of India
- We are living in a time when nuclear fears are on the rise. China’s aggressiveness and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are making people reevaluate nuclear deterrent tactics. Talk of bolstering NATO’s nuclear forces and fostering cooperation between Britain and France is becoming more prevalent in Europe. In a similar vein, Arab countries are moving towards obtaining nuclear weapons due to concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme. In the meantime, worries regarding the automation of nuclear decision-making are raised by the development of robotic weapons and artificial intelligence.
- China’s rapidly developing nuclear programme poses a greater threat to India than Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, which is nevertheless a cause for concern. To meet these difficulties, India must give priority to modernising both its civilian nuclear energy programme and nuclear arsenal.
How is the global nuclear landscape changing?
- War between Russia and Ukraine: Europe’s sense of security has been completely destroyed by Russia’s covert threats to use nuclear weapons during the fight in Ukraine.
- Discussions regarding bolstering NATO’s nuclear forces and possible cooperation between France and Britain on their nuclear arsenals have resulted from this.
- Additionally, Russia has stopped ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
- China’s Nuclear Armament is growing at a rapid pace; projections indicate that by 2035, it may have ten times more nuclear weapons.
- Concerns are being raised among China’s neighbours because to this major build-up and its forceful territorial claims in Asia.
- Japan and South Korea, for example, are reassessing how dependent they are on the US “nuclear umbrella” and are thinking about launching their own nuclear programmes.
- Iran’s Nuclear Programme: The Middle East remains concerned about Iran’s nuclear programme, even in the face of international efforts to curtail it.
- This has increased concerns of a regional nuclear arms race because it is said that Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, are looking into ways to counterbalance Iran’s potential by obtaining nuclear weapons.
- North Korea’s Nuclear Activities: The country’s ongoing work on developing and testing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles poses a serious danger to East Asian stability.
- As a result, there are now more tensions with South Korea and worries throughout the area.
- Modernization of Nuclear Arsenals: Concerns about a possible arms race and a reduction in the threshold for nuclear use are being raised by the modernization of nuclear arsenals even by established nuclear powers like the US and Russia.
- Erosion of Arms Control Treaties: International frameworks for controlling nuclear stockpiles and promoting nuclear disarmament efforts have been weakened by the breakdown of important arms control treaties, such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty between the US and Russia (the former Soviet Union).
What is the historical position of India towards nuclear energy and the use of nuclear weapons?
- 1948: To lead India’s nuclear programme, Homi J. Bhabha becomes chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission.
- 1956: India starts its nuclear research programme when Apsara, the country’s first nuclear reactor, goes into service.
- This was the first reactor not just in India but throughout all of Asia.
- 1968: India declined to ratify the Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation.
- 1969: Tarapur Atomic Power Station, India’s first commercial nuclear power station, opened for business thanks to an agreement between the US, India, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
- 1974 saw the formal designation of India’s first underground nuclear test at Pokhran, nicknamed “Smiling Buddha,” as a benign nuclear explosion.
- 1995–1996: India declined to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and rejected the NPT’s indefinite renewal.
- 1998: Declaring itself a nuclear-armed state, India conducts a series of nuclear tests at Pokhran under the codename Operation Shakti.
- India upheld its self-imposed pledge to use nuclear weapons “never, first, or against” another nation.
- 2003: To lower the possibility of a nuclear exchange, India and Pakistan agree to a truce along the Line of Control in Kashmir.
- 2005: A historic civil nuclear deal between the US and India opens the door to nuclear cooperation and fuel supply.
- 2008: Despite India’s non-NPT status, the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) granted it a waiver, enabling it to participate in nuclear trade.
- India joins the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) in 2016.
- 2019: India shows that it is capable of shooting down low-orbit satellites by successfully testing its anti-satellite missile system.
- 2024 saw the start of the core loading of India’s Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) in Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, which was a major nuclear programme milestone.
- The PFBR is a component of India’s three-phase strategy to utilise its thorium supplies for nuclear energy that is sustainable.
Why didn’t India sign the CTBT and NPT?
- India regards the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as biassed due to its classification of governments as either “nuclear weapon states” (NWS) or “non-nuclear weapon states” (NNWS).
- While NNWS are required to give up their pursuit of nuclear weapons, NWS such as the US, Russia, UK, France, and China are permitted to keep their nuclear arsenals.
- This, in India’s opinion, is unfair and impedes its right to self-defense.
- Although the NPT does not specifically mention it, India is nevertheless dedicated to the objective of universal, non-discriminatory, and verified nuclear disarmament.
- India emphasises the significance of preserving a credible minimum nuclear deterrent against possible threats, particularly from neighbouring China and Pakistan, under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
- India’s capacity to expand and improve its nuclear arsenal may be hampered by its signing of the CTBT, which outlaws the use of nuclear blasts for either military or civilian objectives.
What nuclear threats does India now face?
- India’s Closer Neighbour Nuclear Dangers: Pakistan has an estimated 170 warheads in its sizable nuclear arsenal. If there is a confrontation, there is a greater chance that tensions between India and Pakistan over matters like cross-border terrorism and Kashmir may escalate to the point of nuclear war.
- India is concerned about the changing nuclear balance in the region due to China’s building of multiple missile silos and the use of road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
- Vulnerabilities in Command and Control Systems: Nuclear command and control systems must be safe and secure, and any weaknesses that could allow for illegal access or cyberattacks could have dire repercussions.
- As an illustration, the 2019 claimed cyberattack on India’s Kudankulam nuclear power plant underscored the necessity of strong cybersecurity protocols in the nuclear domain, despite denials from officials.
- Risks to the Environment and Health: India’s growing nuclear energy programme faces difficulties due to the dangers of nuclear accidents, radioactive contamination, and long-term effects on the environment and health.
- For instance, the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan in 2011 made it evident that nuclear facilities must adhere to strict safety regulations and have emergency plans in place.
- Emerging Technologies and Regional Arm Race: Nuclear deterrent plans face additional obstacles as a result of the quick development of hypersonic missiles, autonomous weapons systems, and artificial intelligence (AI).
- Although intended as a deterrent, India’s development of its own hypersonic missile capability may fuel a regional arms competition.
What Steps Should India Take to Make its Nuclear Programme Stronger?
- Achieve Responsible Nuclear Modernization: India ought to prioritise responsible nuclear modernization in addition to upholding a credible minimum deterrence.
- This entails creating cutting-edge delivery methods, enhancing the durability and dependability of its nuclear forces, and investigating cutting-edge technologies like directed energy systems.
- Boost Nuclear Risk Reduction Measures: India should aggressively participate in nuclear risk reduction initiatives with its nuclear-armed neighbours, especially China and Pakistan.
- To avoid unintentional escalation or misunderstandings during crises, this can entail agreements, crisis communication techniques, and confidence-building exercises.
- Invest in Advanced Nuclear technology: India ought to keep funding the development of cutting-edge nuclear technology, including small modular reactors, thorium-based reactors, and designs for next-generation nuclear power plants.
- This can reduce threats to the environment and public safety while helping to meet India’s long-term energy needs.
- Strengthen Civilian Nuclear Cooperation: India ought to work to increase civilian nuclear cooperation with nations and organisations that share its values.
- This can include cooperative research and development initiatives, technological exchanges, and teamwork in fields including nuclear medicine, nuclear waste management, and non-nuclear energy uses.
- Engage in Global Nuclear Governance Initiatives: India ought to take a leading role in international nuclear governance programmes, including the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT) and Nuclear Security Summits.
- By doing this, India would be able to show its dedication to nuclear non-proliferation and the technology’s benign application.
