Current Situation in Pakistan
Context:
- Nawaz Sharif, the supreme leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (N) and three times as prime minister of the nation, returned home on October 21 after being in “exile” in London since 2019. This might significantly affect Pakistan’s relations with its neighbours, particularly India.
Pakistan’s present state of affairs:
- Since August 14, Pakistan has been governed by a caretaker administration, stipulated by the constitution, headed by Anwaar ul Haq Kakar. The main objective of this government is to support the Election Commission in holding elections.
- The delimitation issue is causing the election to be postponed.
- The army may possibly like to postpone the election until Imran Khan’s party is destroyed, according to rumours.
The cause of the conflict between the Army and Imran Khan:
- Imran Khan’s meddling with internal Army operations.
- Imran Khan objected to the Army’s selection of DG ISI in 2021.
- Prime ministers have never been permitted to interfere with the Pakistani army’s internal operations or to hold ultimate decision-making authority over matters of national security or important foreign policy.
- The majority of Army cadres are from Punjab Province in Pakistan, where Imran Khan gained popularity.
- The army is now uneasy as a result, and Imran’s supporters’ actions on May 9—when they broke the army’s regional offices and “defiled” the holy sites of war heroes—were a warning sign.
Pakistan’s Army’s Place in Politics:
- In Pakistan’s political system, the military holds a dominant position.
- It has not held direct power for fifteen years, and under Bajwa, it promised to fulfil its legally authorised job exclusively.
- That promise meant nothing since the army thinks it is the only force capable of keeping the nation united and warding off India, the ever-present enemy.
- As a result, it anticipates that the chosen leadership will grant its requests on matters of fundamental policy.
- The army will eventually continue to be in charge of security and India policy.
Nawaz Shareef’s perspective on India:
- He already persuaded a few of his Indian counterparts that he was attempting to limit the army’s “interference” in the decisions that his government made about India.
- In July 1998, during the SAARC conference in Colombo, he had his first meeting with Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
- The Pakistan army crushed both Vajpayee and Modi’s attempts to work with Sharif, demonstrating unequivocally that it would never permit an elected leader to direct Pakistan’s policy towards India.
- There is no doubt that Nawaz Sharif feels the same way the army does about Jammu and Kashmir.
- But unlike the army, he had previously thought Pakistan could normalise trade and economic relations with India while also taking a tough stance on J&K.
- It will be challenging for him to follow this path in light of the 2019 constitutional amendments until India at least grants J&K statehood again.
Present Army perspective on India:
- Munir has not indicated that he agrees with Bajwa’s assessment that geo-economics is more crucial for Pakistan’s future than geo-politics.
- He appears to be a classic example of the army’s anti-Indian sentiment. However, Pakistan’s severe economic problems persist.
- It is unable to maintain a steady economic rising trajectory in spite of China’s and other donors’ support until it fully embraces practical policies towards India.
- There is currently no sign that the army will take a sip from the poisoned chalice of realism.
In summary:
- The return of Nawaz Shareef to Pakistan could have a big impact on politics, but not on the country’s polity. It also won’t likely change the direction of Pakistan’s foreign and security policies, particularly its fixation on India. Will Shareef be able to push Pakistan in the direction of greater realism from a geoeconomic standpoint? We’ll find out in time.
