El Nino and Indian Monsoons
Present circumstances:
- The monsoon this year shows that the climate has changed and that El Nino is getting stronger and more pronounced.
- An El Nino is identified by an increase in ocean surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- The behaviour of the weather and seas may be significantly affected by this. An unreliable and delayed monsoon has an influence on life, livelihoods, and infrastructure.
- The increasing unpredictability of the monsoon, which has included record-breaking and continuous wet days, should be cause for concern.
Many internal and external factors have an impact on the Indian monsoon:
- The Indian monsoon is a complex phenomenon that is impacted by both internal and external factors. El Nino is an external force that alters the monsoon’s intensity and geographic distribution.
- It’s important to keep in mind that not all monsoonal changes may be attributed to El Nino.
- The dynamics of the monsoon are significantly influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, two additional regional phenomena.
- Weak monsoons and less rain than typical in India are both attributed to el nino. According to rainfall records in India during the previous 132 years, El Nino years have historically corresponded with severe droughts and conditions that are similar to a drought.
- Depending on where the El Nino event occurs, the Indian monsoon is more impacted by warming in the Central Pacific Ocean than it is by warming in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Changes in the climate’s effects:
- The country’s western coast was battered by high-intensity cyclone Biparjoy in June.
- The Central, Eastern, and Northern regions experienced heat stress. The start of the monsoon was erratic and delayed in numerous parts of the country.
- This unpredictability will hurt the agricultural sector.
- The majority of India’s crops is provided by rain. Poor, irregular, or continuous rainfall will be harmful to people’s lives and livelihoods.
How to address issues brought on by the monsoon:
The associated risks must first be located and mapped:
- The country must ascertain the impacts of monsoon variability and, more importantly, identify the risks and vulnerabilities connected with the disasters (landslides, flash floods, etc.).
- It is important to map both hard losses (migration and livelihoods) and soft losses (finances and infrastructure).
- India requires a high-resolution monsoon variability index to monitor critical vulnerabilities at the block and municipal levels while concurrently enhancing early warning systems and forecasting.
Second, implementing financial strategies while being proactive:
- India must take proactive measures to mitigate the socioeconomic risks brought on by monsoon variability, including the use of blended financing solutions.
- The monsoon patterns and El Nino are closely monitored by India’s central bank. Combining public and private financing will enable India to manage the financial risks brought on by the monsoon’s instability.
- Mandatory reporting by the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) will enable lenders, insurers, and regulatory bodies to make risk-aware business decisions. This will also build resilient value chains and reduce loss and damage.
- Adopting blended finance techniques, which boost sectoral resilience as well, makes it simpler to implement efficient risk-transfer mechanisms. This gives us the crucial financial tools we need to absorb the shocks caused by climatological disturbances like monsoonal variability.
Third, revitalising, rehabilitating, and restoring natural ecosystems utilising a naturalistic perspective:
- In India, mangroves, wetlands, and other natural ecosystems must take precedence over forests.
- It ought to be a prerequisite for policy. By restoring degraded land sustainably, ecosystem functions can be restored and biodiversity loss can be halted.
- Natural processes can improve water quality, protect coastal property, and reduce the likelihood of flooding and droughts. They also provide thorough solutions to climate issues.
- Investing in nature-based systems is an economical solution to address climate change and other sustainable development goals while opening up economic opportunities.
Conclusion:
- It is essential to persuade all parts of society to take on a shared duty in order to battle climate change and prepare India for monsoon variability.
- For too long, climate change initiatives have been put off. The current generation will face more difficulties as a result of any further delay, which will also have a detrimental impact on their prospects for the future.
