Climate breakdown: the Arctic Ocean could beice-freeby the 2030s
Context:
- Even if we are successful in reducing emissions between now and 2030, the summertime ice cover in the Arctic Ocean may be completely gone. That disconcerting conclusion was reached by a recent study that was published in Nature Communications.
The circumstance:
- According to a long and convoluted history of projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean, the 2030s is earlier than most experts had predicted.
- The Arctic has seen climate warming more swiftly than any other area of the planet.
- Many scientists and local indigenous people have taken notice of the sea ice that covers much of the Arctic Ocean in the winter since it is at the forefront of climate change.
- This thin coating of frozen saltwater expands and contracts with the seasons until it reaches its smallest size in September of every year.
- The sea ice that is still there at the end of the summer is known as multiyear sea ice, which is much thicker. It acts as a barrier to stop heat and moisture from the water from being transmitted to the atmosphere.
- Over the past several years, this sea ice has shrunk from about 7 million sq. miles throughout the previous 40 years. 4,000,000 kilometres.
- In terms of size, that loss is comparable to either India or twelve United Kingdoms. In other words, it’s a powerful evidence, perhaps the most obvious and dramatic indication yet that the climate system is changing fundamentally.
Blue Ocean Event (BOE):
- A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) is something that you’ve probably never heard of, but in a few years it will be the biggest story that everyone will be talking about.
- A BOE happens when the Arctic Ocean changes from being mostly ice-free blue water during the warm season (May through October) to being covered in ice year-round and reflecting the majority of the sunlight that impacts it back into space.
- If a BOE takes place during a warm season, the water in the Arctic Ocean will refreeze the following cold season.
- Longer Blue water Events are projected with each passing warm season, which will have substantial consequences on the environment and the climate as a whole because the water will get a little bit warmer every year.
- Because darker colours naturally reflect more light than lighter ones, a phenomenon known as the “albedo effect,” blue water, which is dark, absorbs more sunlight than white ice.
- It is notoriously difficult to predict when this might happen because sea ice is affected by both atmospheric and oceanic circulation, as well as the movement of heat between these two elements of the climate system.
The Consequences:
- The actual date, which is still about 20 years away, is still very much in doubt because of the inevitable unpredictable fluctuations in the climatic system. In contrast to past research, the latest analysis nevertheless moves the most probable timing of a blue ocean occurrence forward by around 10 years.
- The Arctic sea ice is important to the world’s climate system. The loss of this ice is predicted to exacerbate warming through a process known as positive feedback by drastically lowering the quantity of sunlight that the ocean can absorb.
- As a result, the Greenland ice sheet, which is already a big contributor to sea level rise, would melt more quickly.
- In addition to altering storm paths and atmospheric circulation, sea ice loss in the summer would also have a considerable impact on ocean biological activity.
Moving forward:
- In conclusion, if people become extinct and temperatures rise significantly by 2026, it is in many respects useless to speculate about what may happen after that year.
- However, the best course of action is to establish a thorough and effective climate plan in order to work towards preventing the worst case scenarios from occurring.
