Recent Climate Change Pattern in Kashmir
Principal causes of the absence of snowfall:
- A sharp decline in Northwest India’s Western Disturbances (WDs)
- El Nino conditions in place
- lack of a powerful jet stream.
What impact do these variables have on snowfall?
Unrest in the West:
- These are storms that move thousands of kilometres from their mid-latitude origins to northern India in order to produce rain.
- In the winter, WDs reduce fog and boost the amount of sunshine that reaches the ground, which raises the temperature.
- Low temperatures cause snow to fall and water to melt, making water available.
- The water of the Ganga, Indus, and Yamuna rivers is influenced by the melting of glaciers.
- Northwest India is typically affected by 5-7 WDs from December to January.
- During this time, there were two WDs, however their effects were mostly felt in Gujarat, north Maharashtra, east Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh.
- The Western Himalayan Region experienced 80% less rain than usual due to the lack of these showers.
El Nino:
- They take place above the tropical Pacific Ocean, or where the sea is warmer.
- El Nino, or its opposite, La Nina, has resulted in fewer WDs in December and January.
- There was an 83% rainfall shortfall in the northwest, which typically receives close to a third of its annual precipitation during this time of year.
- Numerous research have shown that Kashmir’s decreasing snowfall is partly caused by climate change.
- Snowfall is further impacted by the faster rate of temperature increase in upper elevation places compared to the lowlands.
- It is proposed that an additional element influencing global air circulation and contributing to the region’s precipitation shortfall is the ongoing El Nino event in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
- In the past ten years, Jammu & Kashmir has experienced a few relatively dry winters with very little snowfall, including in 2022, 2018, and 2015.
Jet streams:
- JS winds are strong gusts that reach speeds of 250–320 kmph and reach up to 12 km above mean sea level.
- Although they are the carriers of the disturbances from the west, the absence of moisture has been making the cold air sink, intensifying the cold over northern India.
- The Arabian Sea can provide moisture to the jet streams that form when the monsoon retreats.
- There has been a northward shift in the jet stream.
- The natural temperature differential required to maintain the strength and direction of the jet streams is impacted as a result of warming Arctic oceans.
What Would Happen in Kashmir If There Was No Snowfall?
Immediate and Prolonged Effects:
- A rise in agricultural drought, a decrease in crop yield, and an increase in forest fires are some of the immediate consequences.
- Long-term implications include decreased production of hydroelectricity, increased glacier melting, and negative effects on the supply of drinking water because of decreased groundwater recharge.
Crucial to Winter Plants:
- Winter crops, especially horticulture, depend on the winter snow, which is essential for soil moisture.
- When there is not enough snowfall, the yields of apples and saffron—two important commodities for the local economy—are negatively impacted.
- Effect on Travel:
- Due to a lack of snow, Gulmarg, a popular winter tourist destination in Kashmir, is seeing a dramatic drop in visitor numbers this year.
- Even with a significant influx of tourists in 2023, officials anticipate a minimum 60% decrease in foot traffic.
- The local economy is being negatively impacted by ski resorts and other companies due to the lack of snow.
The Way Ahead:
- Aiming for a 1.5°C objective is crucial, but the resulting reduced carbon budget raises concerns about equity and who is ultimately responsible for reaching these lofty goals.
- Mitigation is still necessary since nations cannot fully develop to avoid climate risk and vulnerability.
- The IPCC AR6 synthesis report, which presents a devastating picture of the harm that is being done to ecosystems and the most vulnerable among us, is a historic document that provides a roadmap for sustainable development.
