Strait of Malacca
Context:
- If there is a dispute between the United States and China on Taiwan, India’s options are limited.
Introduction:
- It is a commonly asked question whether India would intervene in the Strait of Malacca or the Andaman Sea in the event of a conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan, given that China has been regularly intimidating Taiwan over the past year by deploying its air force and navy in the surrounding areas.
- A naval blockade of commercial ships or China’s vital maritime commerce and energy lines of communication would be the result of any speculative action in the Strait of Malacca or the Andaman Sea, or it would involve military action against Chinese navy vessels.
Malacca Strait:
- The South China Sea (Pacific Ocean) and the Andaman Sea (Indian Ocean) are connected via the Strait of Malacca.
- It connects the Indonesian island of Sumatra to the west, the Malaysian Peninsula to the east, and the southernmost tip of Thailand to the west.
Limitations on India’s possibilities across the Strait of Malacca:
- First, international law allows challenges to “distant blockades” that are geographically removed from a belligerent nation.
- Secondly, trade over the Strait of Malacca is not merely vital to China’s economy and energy supply. The same Strait is used for a vast majority of the trade between South Korea, Japan, and even India itself.
- Third, a naval blockade would have a negative impact on the sovereignty of neighbouring governments including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore, as well as the 500-mile-long Strait of Malacca. It is unlikely that the impacted nations would back a naval blockade.
- Fourth, determining the sovereignty of the ship, its flag, its registration, its insurance, and the ownership of its cargo are all very difficult to determine in commercial transportation. Additionally, these are frequently international in scope and are modifiable at any Southeast Asian port via transshipment.
- Fifth, even if the Strait of Malacca were “choked,” ships could still detour through the Sunda or Lombok Straits to reach China, in addition to the fact that it is challenging to impede China’s trade and energy supply.
- Sixth, given the increasing amount of oil supplied overland from Russia and Central Asia, China can withstand interruptions thanks to its sizable onshore and floating Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR).
The effects of the naval blockade:
- A unilateral attack or naval blockade against the naval vessels of an adversary would be considered a declaration of war and, at the very least, could spark a conflict that is not always restricted to the maritime domain.
- Friendly and unfriendly regional nations that suffer from disruptions in the Strait of Malacca are unlikely to support unilateral action. China would effectively oppose any such attempt by leveraging its permanent seat in the UN Security Council and its regional clout.
Previous Experiences Acquired:
- It is also important to remember that naval blockades and sanctions caused conflagrations during both the First and Second World Wars.
- Germany used its submarines, or U-boats, to ruthlessly retaliate against British ships on the high seas during the 1914–1919 British blockade of Germany during World War I.
- Later events brought the United States into the First World War, such as the 1916 Battle of Jutland and the German U-boats’ sinking of American cargo ships.
- The United States’ embargo on Japan’s energy supplies during World War II, which passed through the marine commons, most likely had a significant impact on Japan’s decision to attack Pearl Harbour in December 1941.
What actions does India need to take?
- India’s main role may be restricted to the proactive defence of its territorial interests and the security of its sea lines of communication and those of its strategic partners in the eastern and western Indian Ocean, should a full-fledged conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan cause ripples across the Indian Ocean. India’s biggest concern in such a situation would still be its continental boundaries with China.
Way Forward:
- Historically, India has mostly been left to handle China’s military threats at its borders. It is anticipated that the new military, high-tech, and commercial alliance between the United States and India would grow stronger in the coming years.
- India is increasingly seen by the United States as the region’s stabilising force. Multipolarity in the Indo-Pacific may be supported by a healthy India with a strong economy, a credible military, and the potential to deter nuclear weapons.