New Developments in Geopolitics by 2024
Problems:
- Because there is an impenetrable divide between the two sides, the two-state option has little prospect of success.
- the intense pain and rage brought on by the recent wars.
- Russian Foreign Minister: Israelis and Palestinians will always be living from escalation to escalation in the absence of a political outlook.
War’s effects:
- increasing regionalization of the conflict as a result of Houthi militia attacks on cargo ships in Yemen
- It made everything more complicated, most likely with Iranian assistance.
- The increase in the cost of products moved between Europe and Asia, as well as maritime violence.
War between Russia and Ukraine:
- It is more difficult to predict how the Russia-Ukraine war will turn out.
- There are two opposing systems in addition to two nations involved in the fight.
- Russia and NATO serve as representatives of the western security system.
- The effects of war fatigue are apparent.
- It’s getting harder for the US to keep throwing money at a war that Ukraine has little chance of winning.
- The decrease in financial and material support will make it harder for Ukraine to fight the war.
- President of Eurasia Group Ian Bremmer: “By 2024, Ukraine can avert additional Russian advances, let alone regain lost territory.”
Effect on the Russian Federation:
- It has demonstrated incredible resilience in the face of the concerted resistance of the West.
- stinging financial penalties
Gains for India in 2023:
- A mature and self-assured approach has been taken in managing relations with the main powers.
- Significant progress was made in U.S.-Indian relations.
- Political unification
- Increasing defence collaboration
- The U.S.-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) is expanding its scope.
- Positive progress is guaranteed in cooperation with the European Union (EU) and bilateral partnerships with its major member states.
- The French President’s arrival as the main attraction at the Republic Day festivities
- It will strengthen cooperation with an essential strategic partner.
- Give special attention to the alliances formed with Australia and Japan and the ongoing strengthening of the Quad.
- Russia: This “time-tested” connection is still strong and solid, as evidenced by the concrete results of the External Affairs Minister’s recent visit to Russia.
- In 2024, a Modi-Putin summit is almost a certain.
- Managing the G-20 presidency, which resulted in the “100% consensus” acceptance of the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration.
- The success of carrying out the resolutions made at the summit now mostly rests with Brazil and South Africa, the two upcoming presidents.
The Way Ahead:
- Formerly India’s backyard, South Asia is currently experiencing an increase in Chinese influence, as evidenced by recent events in the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bhutan.
- China’s economic generosity and geopolitical agenda, which seeks to keep India confined to its borders, are the main drivers of this “intrusion.”
- Developing a successful counter-strategy is necessary.
- Indian diplomacy will address both historical and contemporary problems.
Climate Variability:
- discussions for a number of free trade deals
- highlight India’s prowess in digital technologies
- willingness to give artificial intelligence (AI) top priority in terms of the country’s economic growth.
- Serious consideration will need to be given to multilateral organisations like the G-20, BRICS, the SCO, the Indian Ocean Rim Association, and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, as well as the necessity of advancing UN Security Council reform.
- The upcoming parliamentary elections must be portrayed to the world by the Ministry of External Affairs as a significant turning point in the growth of the biggest functional democracy in the world.
