29 April 2024 – The Indian Express

Conflict between Iran and Israel

• A large offensive was undertaken by Iran against Israel, which involved the deployment of more than 300 projectiles. These projectiles included roughly 170 drones, cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. A deadly attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria, was the impetus for this move, which was generally interpreted as a form of vengeance.
• Moving beyond earlier skirmishes involving Israel and Hamas, the attack marks a significant escalation in the continuing struggle between Israel and Iran. This conflict has been going on for quite some time. This occurrence brings to light the escalating tensions that exist between two of the most steadfast foes in the Middle East and exposes the potential for additional conflict in the region.

Iran-Israeli Relations Prior to 1979:

• After the establishment of Israel in 1948, Iran was one of the first countries in the region to acknowledge the existence of the state.
• One of the earliest wars between Israel and Arab states broke out in 1948 as a result of Arab states’ hostility to Israel. During the fight, Iran did not take part, and after Israel emerged victorious, it established diplomatic relations with the Jewish state.
• An analysis conducted by the Brookings Institute reveals that Israel, under the tenure of its first Prime Minister David Ben Gurion, used the “periphery doctrine” in order to combat Arab antagonism. This was accomplished by building partnerships with non-Arab countries in the Middle East, the majority of which were Muslim communities. The primary objective of this policy was to establish ties with countries like as Turkey and Iran prior to the revolution, both of which had a pro-Western posture and felt alienated in the region before the revolution.
• The foreign policy of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, who ruled Iran from 1941 to 1979, was one that was favourable to the Western world. Iranian diplomatic relations with Israel were maintained, and the country even continued to supply oil to Israel during this time period, despite the fact that Arab states were engaging in an economic boycott of Iran.

Revolutionary Events of 1979:

• The Shah of Iran was deposed during the Islamic Revolution of 1979, which resulted in the establishment of a national religious state in Iran. The regime’s perspective on Israel shifted, and it came to be perceived as an occupier of land belonging to the Palestinian people.
• Ayatollah Khomeini, the Supreme Leader of Iran, referred to Israel as the “Little Satan” and the United States as the “Great Satan.” He viewed both of these countries as actors that interfered in domestic affairs in the region.
• In addition, Iran endeavoured to expand its influence in the region, using it as a challenge to the two major countries in the region, Saudi Arabia and Israel, both of which were allies of the United States.

After the year 1979, a Shadow War:

• This led to a worsening of the relations that existed between the countries. Both Israel and Iran have attempted to inflict damage on the other through proxies and limited strategic attacks, despite the fact that they have never engaged in a direct military combat with one another.
• A number of nuclear facilities and nuclear experts were targeted by Israel at the beginning of the 2010s in an effort to prevent the country from attaining nuclear weapons.
• Stuxnet is a malicious computer virus that is suspected to have been developed in 2010 by the United States of America and Israel. The “first publicly known cyberattack on industrial machinery” was carried out with the intention of launching an assault on a uranium enrichment facility located at the nuclear complex in Natanz, Iran.
• In the meantime, Iran is believed to be responsible for providing financial support and assistance to a number of militant groups in the region that are hostile towards the United States and Israel. These groups include Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
• As a result of this backing, concerns over the possibility of a confrontation or a conflict that is getting worse have been voiced during the past few months.

How did Iran come to attack Israel, and what were the key events that led up to it?

• Withdrawal from Iran’s Nuclear Deal: In 2018, Israel praised the United States for its decision to withdraw from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers. This decision came after years of lobbying against the pact, and Israel referred to Trump’s action as “a historic move.”
• Israel expresses its satisfaction with the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the overseas wing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, which took place in Baghdad in the year 2020. The assassination was carried out by an American drone strike. In retaliation, Iran launches missile attacks against Iraqi bases that are providing lodging for American troops.
• Missile Attack by Hamas: In October of 2023, the terrorist organisation Hamas, which is supported by Iran, conducted a missile attack that was directed against Israel. In retaliation, Israel carried out airstrikes against the Gaza Strip.
• Raids and Attacks on Medical Facilities Israel began conducting raids and attacks against medical facilities in November 2023. This was due to the fact that it was alleged that Hamas was operating from these hospital buildings and carrying out their warfare.
• An incident involving the Houthi group occurred in the Red Sea in November 2023. The Houthi organisation, which is based in Yemen and is supported by Iran, landed their helicopter on the Galaxy Leader cargo vessel while it was travelling through the Red Sea. This event symbolised the beginning of the ‘Red Sea Crisis,’ which ultimately resulted in problems with the supply system.
• Escalation of Israel’s Ground Offences: In December 2023, Israel’s ground offences in the Gaza Strip became more intense and occurred at a quick pace. This resulted in an increase in the number of people who made the decision to flee their homes. ‘Early and durable resolution’ was something that India wanted the nations that were at war to achieve.
• Airstrike on the Iranian Embassy: Seven officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, including two senior commanders, were killed in what is believed to be an Israeli air strike on the grounds of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Israel has not confirmed nor denied any responsibility for the incident.
• In April of 2024, Iran conducted a missile strike against Israel. This attack was carried out by Iran. Allegedly, the attack was carried out in retaliation for what is believed to have been an Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria. This was the first time that Iran had engaged in direct attacks against Israel from within its own country.
• An Israeli Air Defence System with Multiple Layers The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) asserted that the Israeli air defence system was successful in intercepting 99 percent of the rockets that were coming from Iran. A number of Middle Eastern friends, including the United States of America, the United Kingdom, France, and others, contributed to Israel’s defence.

What Is the Potential Impact of the Iran-Israel War on the World?

The possibility of an Israeli response could worsen the situation in the region:

• On the basis of the widely held Israeli perception that an Iran armed with nuclear weapons poses an existential threat to Israel, it is impossible to leave out the possibility of retaliation in the decision-making matrix.
• The failure of diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions or negotiate a peaceful resolution could leave military action as the only alternative, which would increase the likelihood of escalation in the region.

Possibility of Interrupting the Supply of Oil:

• Of the countries that are members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iran is the third-largest producer of crude oil. If the tensions between Iran and Israel continue to develop, there will be a significant disruption in the supply of crude oil, which would result in higher prices.
• India is the third-largest user and importer of crude oil, and it imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil requirements. This will have a negative impact on the sentiment of the Indian share market.

Extremely High Rates of Inflation and Capital Exodus:

• As a result of disruptions in supply, the prices of commodities will go up if geopolitical tensions continue to rise from this point forward. Inflation will continue to be high on a global scale as a result of geopolitical tension, which will have an impact on the price of crude oil as well as the prices of other commodities such as copper, zinc, aluminium, nickel, and so on.
• It is anticipated that investors would become more cautious as a consequence of these concerns, and they may decide to move their money away from risky assets such as Indian equities and into safer options such as gold (bullion).
• There is a possibility that bond prices will decrease, that the cost of financing for businesses will increase, and that stock markets would decline as a result of decreased profitability in the corporate sector due of increased uncertainty.

Disruptions to Trade and Travel:

• In the event that Israel and Iran engage in a full-scale conflict, not only may the price of oil be impacted, but also commerce and travel could be negatively impacted. The aviation and shipping industries are susceptible to disruption.
• In point of fact, a number of nations in the region, including Israel, Iran, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon, temporarily shut down their airspaces. They did so in order to return to normal operations, albeit with some limitations.
• Following the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel, it has been observed by specialists that India’s exports to Europe will be made more difficult.

The Strategic Conundrum Facing India:

• Iran and Israel are both long-standing strategic alliances for India, and both relationships create challenges for India on both the diplomatic and operational fronts.
• India places a high importance on its strategic engagement with Israel, which includes collaboration in the sector of defence, the exchange of technology, and the sharing of intelligence. India, on the other hand, continues to maintain historical and commercial links with Iran, which include the importation of energy and the construction of infrastructural projects.
• For the sake of protecting its interests, particularly the welfare of its diaspora and the security of its energy supply, India is working to preserve peace and stability in the Middle East.

What are some of the potential solutions that might be made to de-escalate the conflict between Israel and Iran?

A Two-State Solution Together with a Sustainable Ceasefire:

• A lasting truce in Gaza should be accepted by Israel as soon as feasible, the borders should be opened for international humanitarian aid to Gaza, and Israel should follow the United Nations resolutions to end the conflict that has been going on for seven decades by providing a solution that involves two states.
• For the sake of long-term security, peace, and stability in the area, the only viable path forward is to negotiate a settlement that involves two states. Although it is not an easy aim to achieve, both parties are aware of the possible obstacles and opportunities that may arise.

Dialoguing and diplomatic effort:

• An international endeavour is required to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Iran that is both long-lasting and sustainable. In order to establish confidence and locate areas of agreement, it may be beneficial to encourage both nations to participate in direct negotiations that are mediated by international mediators.
• Direct discussions between Iran and Israel could be arranged by a neutral third party, such as the European Union or the United Nations. These talks could happen between Iran and Israel.

The Addressing of Concerns Regarding Nuclear Proliferation:

• The Iranian government has the ability to comply with the requirements of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and permit international inspections of its nuclear sites in order to guarantee that it is in accordance with the deal.
• In exchange, Israel may acknowledge Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy and make a commitment to desist from launching military operations against Iranian nuclear installations.

Cooperation within the Region:

• It is possible that fostering cooperation between Iran and Israel within the framework of regional organisations, such as the Arab League or the Gulf Cooperation Council, could be of assistance in addressing concerns regarding security that are shared by both countries and in fostering stability in these regions.
• A comprehensive regional security architecture that answers the concerns of all stakeholders in the Middle East could help to stability and lessen the likelihood of violence between Iran and Israel. This architecture would address the concerns of all parties involved in the region.

Perspectives on the Middle East for the Long Term:

• It is possible for regional countries to collaborate in order to construct a complete security architecture for the Middle East. This architecture may include institutions for the peaceful resolution of disputes, agreements to limit weaponry, and efforts to build an atmosphere of confidence.
• By addressing the underlying concerns, such as historical grievances, territorial disputes, and religious fanaticism, it is possible to contribute to the creation of an atmosphere that is conducive to peace and reconciliation.

Relationships are being normalised now:

• Iran and Israel could take measures to normalise their diplomatic ties by swapping ambassadors, reopening embassies, and permitting people-to-people exchanges. These actions would be comparable to the peace deals that Israel has reached with several Arab states, such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
• The continued instability in the Middle East has ramifications that extend to the Global South as well as the governance processes of the entire world. Consequently, it is of the utmost importance for the world community to implore all parties involved to abstain from using violence and to place an emphasis on diplomatic negotiations as a means of finding answers. The adoption of measures that are responsible and well-balanced is absolutely necessary in order to forestall long-term instability and ameliorate the crisis in the region.