29 December 2023 – The Indian Express

Challenges for India in the South Asia Region

• One of the biggest obstacles to Indian foreign policy is found in its own backyard. Challenges in India’s near surrounds impede its ambitions to play a major role in the globe, particularly in leading the global South and entering global politics. The continent of South Asia, where India is located, is not keen to support India’s goals. As a matter of fact, it appears to be impeding India’s progress, in part because of the advent of a formidable neighbour in the area, which has left India in an unprecedentedly difficult and unusual predicament.
• The aggressive Realism hypothesis of John Mearsheimer: John Mearsheimer is a well-known international relations theorist who developed the aggressive realism hypothesis.
• According to offensive realism, governments should prioritise their own security and survival by attempting to maximise their power in relation to other states, as the international system is fundamentally anarchic.
• According to Mearsheimer, governments are motivated by a desire for supremacy, and this desire breeds rivalry, insecurity, and eventually conflict.

What geopolitical dilemmas does India currently face?

• India is confronted with a number of regional problems, each with its own set of difficulties. These conundrums fall into three primary categories:

Political Catch-22:

• Anti-India Regimes: The emergence of politically charged anti-India regimes in South Asia is one of the major issues. For example, the new administration in the Maldives has made it clear that it wants Indian forces to leave, adopting an anti-Indian attitude.
• Potential Ideological Shifts: India’s political predicament is compounded by the prospect of Khaleda Zia leading a government in Bangladesh following the impending elections.
• A government of that kind is feared to be ideologically hostile to India, which would impede diplomatic ties and threaten regional stability.

Dilemma Structure:

• Chinese Influence: China’s growing sway over South Asia presents India with a structural conundrum. India’s regional domination and influence are under threat from China’s expanding influence. China is attracting governments looking for tangible benefits as it grows in importance as an economic and political force in the region.
• India’s inability to effectively compete in providing for its neighbours’ material needs as a result of the structural shift has caused them to lean more towards China.

Normative Conundrum:

• Changing Regional Dynamics: India has traditionally taken a political and normative approach to the area. But China’s rise as a non-normative substitute puts India’s conventional wisdom in jeopardy.
• The dynamics of South Asian diplomacy are upset by China’s stance as a “norms-free-zone,” since governments in the area can find it alluring to side with a force that doesn’t enforce normative requirements.
• Restricted Options: South Asian states face a predicament because there are no feasible choices. India must modify its strategy to take into account the shifting dynamics in the area, as China presents a non-normative option. This change calls into question India’s historical hegemony in establishing political standards and norms in its neighbourhood.

What distinguishes China from India?

• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Economic Influence: The region’s smaller governments are becoming more and more entangled as a result of China’s aggressive participation in the BRI and other initiatives.
• The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a vast economic and infrastructure development initiative that includes investments in several nations to improve commerce and connectivity.
• China has a major advantage over India because of its financial resources and dedication to these projects.
• China’s larger financial resources allow it to have a greater impact and influence in the region, even if India participates in regional economic initiatives as well.
• Outreach to South Asian States: Despite possible avoidance or abandonment by other international players due to normative or other reasons, China has shown a proactive attitude in reaching out to South Asian states.
• China’s participation with the Taliban-led Afghanistan, the military-ruled Myanmar, and the crisis-ridden Sri Lanka are notable examples.
• India also carries out diplomatic outreach, but China’s efforts have a greater overall influence in the region due to their scope and financial support.
• Border Conflict Resolution Plan: China has a unique plan in place to win over the area when it comes to resolving border conflicts with its neighbours, with the exception of India. Through resolving conflicts like Bhutan, China aims to become a trustworthy and cooperative partner.
• While India has also worked to settle border conflicts, China’s particular approach and concentration have given it a distinct advantage in the area.

Why is India dealing with these issues?

• US Decreased Presence in South Asia: The first reason is the shifting geopolitical landscape of the region, which is reflected in US declines in South Asia.
• In the past, the United States remained a stable geopolitical force in the area. Its departure is viewed negatively even though India did not always benefit from its presence.
• The United States’ withdrawal has left a power vacuum that other players—most notably China—have taken advantage of.
• China’s aggressive and significant rise as a geopolitical buffer is the second reason. China has provided smaller governments with a “geopolitical buffer” as a result of its rise to prominence in the region’s geopolitics.
• These states have strategically aligned themselves with China by using the “China card” more and more in their foreign policy.
• This change is interpreted as an attempt to fill the power vacuum left by the United governments and captures the dynamic in which neighbouring governments are more willing to declare their sovereignty in relation to India than they are to do the same with regard to China.
• China’s Appeal and the Strategic Autonomy of Neighbouring States: The third factor has to do with the strategic decisions made by surrounding nations. Even if these governments may want to exercise strategic autonomy in their interactions, there isn’t much enthusiasm for doing so when it comes to China.
• As a result of China’s ascent to prominence in the area, smaller governments are now more skilled at using their connections with China and India to further their own agendas.
• India’s attempts to maintain influence in the region and interact with its neighbours are hampered by this dynamic.
• What possible outcomes might this geopolitical shift have?
• The overall effect, or one that might emerge in the future, is a little concerning. India faces the prospect of being politically isolated within an antagonistic South Asian region unless it takes bold action.

What action is India supposed to take?

• Engage Amicable External Players: India should keep enhancing its multilateral and bilateral relationships with its neighbours, which are built on respect, cooperation, and mutual trust.
• India ought to highlight its historical, cultural, and economic ties to the area and extend its support and collaboration in domains like commerce, connectivity, development, security, and disaster relief.
• India need to strive to be a dependable and beneficial ally for its neighbours rather than an overbearing or hegemonic force.
• Flexible diplomacy: Indian diplomacy ought to be able to change to accommodate different stakeholders in adjacent nations. The goal of diplomacy is not to incite anger against anti-Indian elements, but to mitigate their antagonism.
• It makes sense to interact with the existing leaders, but it is foolish to restrict interaction to people in authority.
• Increase Diplomatic Staff: Based on the information you gave, India ought to devote more funds and manpower to its diplomatic endeavours. To effectively represent and advance its interests and ideals in the area and beyond, India needs enhance the number and calibre of its diplomats.
• India ought to augment its cultural outreach and public diplomacy by exhibiting its accomplishments, diversity, and soft power; additionally, it should facilitate interpersonal connections and exchanges.

Way Forward:

• China’s development and changing dynamics present significant problems for India’s foreign policy in South Asia. India should employ soft power to build goodwill, increase regional security cooperation, and give priority to economic integration in order to navigate this. For India to remain a stabilising factor in the changing South Asian scene, it will require patient, long-term vision, active involvement in regional platforms, and strategic communication.