29 March 2024 – The Indian Express

China Taiwan Conflict

• China maintains its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan, seeing it as a part of its territory and pledging to bring the two countries back together eventually, even if it means using force. China’s military exercises near Taiwan have risen dramatically, with frequent naval and air incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ). In reaction to China’s growing assertiveness, the United States has reaffirmed its commitment to Taiwan’s security and boosted its support, including military cooperation and arms sales.
• Conversely, Taiwan preserves its unique identity and democratic framework, with the vast majority of its citizens endorsing the current state of de facto independence. In reaction to China’s military threats, Taiwan has strengthened its defences and worked to expand its ties and global footprint.

What is the current China-Taiwan Conflict Context?

Historical Background:

• Taiwan was ceded to Japan in 1895 after China lost the first Sino-Japanese war, which had brought Taiwan under Chinese rule during the Qing dynasty.
• Following Japan’s defeat in World War II, China reclaimed sovereignty of Taiwan in 1945; nonetheless, nationalists fled to Taiwan in 1949 as a result of the civil war erupting between them and the communists.
• The Chinese Civil War (1927–1950) between the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) is where the origins of the Taiwan dispute lie.
• Following the Communist triumph in 1949, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was proclaimed on the mainland by the CPC, while the Nationalist government withdrew to Taiwan and established the Republic of China (ROC) there.

The One-China Policy:

• Both the PRC and the ROC assert that they speak for China’s legitimate government. Insisting that there is only one China and that Taiwan is a part of it, the PRC claims sovereignty over Taiwan. This is what the One-China Policy says.

Recognition on a global scale:

• The majority of nations, including the US, accept the One-China Policy and the PRC as the legitimate government of China.
• Nonetheless, despite not formally acknowledging Taiwan’s sovereignty, they continue to have informal contacts with Taiwan, frequently in the form of cultural and economic exchanges.

Taiwan’s Character:

• Over the years, Taiwan has created its own distinct identity, complete with a democratic system, constitution, and government. Instead of identifying as Chinese, many Taiwanese individuals identify as Taiwanese.

Intercultural Relations:

• Taiwan’s relationship with the Chinese mainland has changed over time. There have been times of peace and harmony as well as times of conflict and antagonism, particularly in the economic domain.

Military Dangers:

• If diplomatic efforts fail, China has not ruled out using force to bring Taiwan back to the mainland. It has increased its navy and missile troops as well as upgraded its military capabilities, which has alarmed Taiwan and other nations in the area.

Global Society:

• In international relations, the Taiwan dispute is still delicate and divisive. Many nations try to strike a careful balance between supporting Taiwan’s democracy and security and their relations with China.

Taiwan’s Strategic Significance:

Geographical Location:

• Taiwan sits next to China, Japan, and the Philippines in the western Pacific Ocean, which is a strategically significant location. Because of its location, it has easy access to Southeast Asia and the South China Sea, two regions that are vital to international trade and security.

Military Importance:

• Due to its closeness to China’s mainland, Taiwan is taken into consideration by China and other regional powers when making military plans.
• Gaining control of Taiwan would let China project influence into the western Pacific, where it would pose a danger to important US allies like South Korea and Japan.

Economic Significance:

• Taiwan is a significant economic force in the world economy, especially in the electronics and semiconductor sectors.
• Because of its tight economic integration with both local and international supply chains, it is strategically significant for both economic security and regional stability. More than 60% of the world’s semiconductors, including the most sophisticated ones, are made in Taiwan.

What Are the Various Facets of the Current China-Taiwan Conflict?

China’s worries:

Challenges to One China Policy:

• This implies that nations wishing to establish diplomatic ties with the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan) must sever their formal ties with the People’s Republic of China (PRC, Mainland China), and vice versa.

This approach is called into question by Taiwan’s membership in intergovernmental bodies and its diplomatic ties:

• Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and the EU are just a few of the many states with which the Democratic Republic of China (ROC) has formal diplomatic relations.

Accords and Measures Against China:

• In an apparent attempt to challenge China, the US has announced the formation of a new trilateral security alliance for the Indo-Pacific region involving Australia, the UK, and the US (AUKUS).
• The US, Japan, India, and Australia-led Malabar Exercise is also a significant step towards forming a long-lasting Indo-Pacific alliance and resolving the enormous strategic imbalance brought about by a militarily and economically dominant China.

US Defence and Strategy Assistance to Taiwan:

• By acquiring US armaments, such as updated F-16 fighter jets, armed drones, rocket systems, and Harpoon missiles, Taiwan has attempted to strengthen its defences.
• In an effort to preserve maritime security and establish alliances that promote freedom of the seas, a US aircraft carrier group led by the battleship Theodore Roosevelt has entered the South China Sea.

India’s Position on the Matter:

• Taiwan and Tibet are recognised as parts of China under the “One China” policy, which India has embraced since 1949.
• Nonetheless, India employs the policy to advance a diplomatic point: China ought to support a “One India” policy if India does.

Establishing Diplomatic Relations:

• Since 2010, India has refrained from declaring its allegiance to the One China policy in joint declarations and official papers, but the framework of ties with China still limits its involvement with Taiwan.
• Although Taiwan and India do not have formal diplomatic ties, since 1995, they have kept de facto embassies in each other’s capitals through representative offices.

Third TECC Centre to Open in India:

• Taiwan has declared its intention to establish its third representative Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre (TECC) in Mumbai, India.
• The action, which included the creation of a TECC, is intended to improve bilateral cooperation and economic ties between Taiwan and India.

US-China relations regarding Taiwan:

• An Anti-Secession Law, passed by the Chinese government in 2005, lays out the circumstances under which China may use non-peaceful measures to stop Taiwan from permanently seceding from mainland China.
• According to the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979, the US must defend Taiwan from Chinese coercion or aggression.
• US Position: The US and China have opposing positions on Taiwan, which are demonstrated by the recent Chinese incursions and the US’s resistance to them.
• It has asked China to have substantive talks with Taiwan’s democratically elected officials in place of continuing its economic, diplomatic, and military pressure against the island nation.

Current Events:

• President Tsai’s election in 2016 signalled the start of a vigorous pro-independence movement in Taiwan, which she repeated in 2020.
• The island currently has substantial financial interests, some of which are in China. Some who support independence are concerned that this economic reliance could work against them.
• On the other hand, pro-reunification organisations in China and Taiwan believe that stronger interpersonal ties will gradually weaken the arguments in favour of independence.

What prevents India from wanting the conflict to get worse?

Trade and Economic Issues:

• India and Taiwan are investigating the possibility of a free trade agreement, having increased trade seven times since 2001. Together with the Tata Group, the Taiwanese company Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation is constructing India’s first semiconductor fabrication facility.
• Recently, a deal was made to deploy labourers from India to Taiwan. An enduring peaceful status quo across the Taiwan Strait is increasingly important to India’s industry, vital supply networks, and expatriate community.

Disturbances Owing to War:

• For India, any action by China against Taiwan would have disastrous consequences. In reality, a situation like this would cripple international trade with China and Taiwan, causing havoc across Asia, especially West Asia.
• According to a recent Bloomberg report, the expenses of a battle would exceed 10% of the world’s gross domestic product. India’s economy would be more severely hit than the US economy, and its most valued industries—pharmaceuticals and electronics, for example—would run out of raw materials and components.

Effects That Overflow Across Boundaries:

• A long-term or all-out conflict between the US and China that extends beyond Taiwan might have several unintended consequences. It might flare up the already tense border between China and India.
• Aside from the potential of unimaginable nuclear escalation, it might wipe out or take offline significant chunks of the industrial capacity of China, the United States, and other regional countries, on which the world depends.

Deteriorating India’s International Standing Over Time:

• Even if a fight would be disastrous in and of itself, depending on which side wins, its consequences could harm India’s standing abroad over the long run.
• The most plausible scenario for a Chinese triumph over Taiwan and a commensurate defeat of the US and its allies is a short fight, where China has relative advantages of concentrating power near Taiwan.
• Should China, as a result of conflict, overtake the US as the leading military force in the region, the entire security framework in the region would be put in jeopardy.

Encouraging the Arms Race in the Community:

• China’s military would be allowed to continue projecting unfettered influence, even into the Indian Ocean, and American security assurances would lose credibility. Additionally, neighbours would try to secure their security by acquiring additional weapons or adopting confrontational postures.
• It might even be more confident to assert its claims on Arunachal Pradesh. India depends on the US for both its military modernization and a generally safe strategic environment, despite not being an ally.

What are India’s options for handling the conflict that is getting worse?

Sustaining Military Equilibrium across the Taiwan Strait:

• When it comes to Taiwan, Beijing uses a variety of instruments—including international law, economic pressure, and political clout—while attempting to avoid using military force. Its goal is to reduce expenses and disturbances, saving military action until when it is certain of success.
• While maintaining a military balance across the Taiwan Strait is essential to averting conflict, countries such as India can also play a role by persuading Beijing that its demands for military action are not being fulfilled.

Examining Various Policies:

• India can choose from six different kinds of policy options: arguing from international law; creating narratives opposing aggression; coordinating diplomatic messaging; de-risking the economy; actively promoting Taiwanese interests through information operations; and providing military support to US forces in the Indian Ocean.
• Every choice can be adjusted to suit varying degrees of ambition and political inclination, and numerous other nations can adopt and implement them.
• Whatever their effect on the China-Taiwan dispute, these choices can also further India’s grand strategic position:
• Above all, implementing these policies will give India greater clout in its escalating geopolitical rivalry with China.
• They also provide India with more avenues to strengthen its ties with the US and accelerate its ascent to prominence.
• Additionally, they provide a broader platform for Indian leadership abroad, particularly with regard to the Global South, where without them, efforts to stop Chinese invasion would be largely ineffective or at best disorganised.

Re-evaluating the One-China Policy:

• In the same way that China is deepening its participation in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) through the ambitious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), India should reconsider the One China Policy and isolate its relationship with Taiwan from that with mainland China.

Adopting a cooperative strategy:

• India and other nations need to set a limit on any attempt by China to annex Taiwan militarily. Ultimately, the Taiwan issue involves more than just the moral dilemma of permitting the collapse of a prosperous democracy or the ethical dilemma of upholding the principle of peaceful dispute resolution on a global scale.
• Actually, the purpose for establishing that line has nothing to do with Taiwan; rather, it has to do with what would happen to India and the rest of Asia in the event that China invaded Taiwan.
• India has more reasons than ever to keep Taiwan relations as they are, given its growing national interests. India’s economic and security interests make any engagement in a Taiwan dispute quite improbable. Such a battle would have disastrous consequences for world trade and might spark more regional conflicts. India has a number of policy choices at its disposal to avert this kind of situation, including arguments based on international law, diplomatic messaging, economic tactics, information operations, and military assistance to the United States in the Indian Ocean.