COVID – Three Years Later
Present circumstances:
- Due to the biggest and most aggressive Covid-19 wave in China, there have been rumours of a fourth wave in India. Federal and state officials have had high-level conversations, practise drills, and issued some advisories based on speculation.
- Naturally, this has led to some apprehension and uneasiness among the general public.
Process of a disease outbreak or epidemic:
- Intricate interactions between the “epidemiologic trinity” of the agent, host, and environment result in a disease outbreak or epidemic in any setting or country.
- The causative agent in Covid-19 is the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, or SARS-CoV-2. Both people and the factors that are connected to them, such as the susceptibility pool, population-level immunity, age distribution, burden of co-morbidities, etc., are referred to as “hosts.”
- Environmental or external factors include things like the level of social and commercial activity, travel, and any prevailing infections that might prevent the transfer of diseases.
India’s struggle against the Covid-19 was aided by a well-planned immunisation programme:
- SARS CoV2 had the potential to spread quickly and become pandemic in the beginning of 2020. At the time, it was a completely new virus that was extremely contagious and affected the entire population.
- Three years later, the virus is no longer fresh, and people are protected from mild to severe illness either because of a prior natural infection, a vaccination, or most frequently both.
- After three waves of the Covid-19 virus especially in India, it is predicted that 95% or more of the population, including people of all ages, including children, have spontaneously contracted the disease at least once. Additionally, the Covid-19 vaccination has been administered to 97% of adults at least once.
- By the end of 2022, there will be a very low likelihood that 98 percent or more of India’s population will be suffering from a moderate to severe sickness.
- However, the likelihood of a new national wave in India increases with significant changes to one or more components of the epidemiologic triad.
Has the Covid boom in China have an impact on India’s situation?
- According to the agent factor, Omicron (B.1.1.529) and its sub-lineages, including XBB and BF.7, are growing in China.
- The Omicron strain, whose sub-lineages had been circulating there for some time, caused the third wave in India. The emergence of new types of anxiety has always resulted in new waves of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic (VoC). The same VoC is not known to generate a second wave under the same circumstances. Since no new VoC has been reported, the agent factor for India is therefore unchanged.
- One of the host variables is the increase in Covid vaccines and preventive dosages since the third wave in January 2022. Asymptomatic illnesses have continued to be disseminated via Omicron and its sub-lineages.
- The low incidence of moderate to severe Covid cases indicates that regular exposure to sub-lineages in the natural environment has likely more than made up for the reduction in antibody levels that occurs after vaccination or a natural infection, even after taking that into account. It may be argued that the susceptible population has decreased even further.
- Social interactions and activities have increased in comparison to earlier this year in terms of environmental or external factors, whereas mask use and adherence to physical distance have reduced.
- But these techniques were more useful for vulnerable people who lacked immunity (not exposed to the virus and not vaccinated).
- Environmental factors only come into play when the agent factor or the emergence of a new VoC changes.
- With the exception of a small fraction of the population sub-group that is vulnerable and unvaccinated, Omicron is currently the only VoC, limiting the efficacy of masks and physical isolation as public health precautions.
- Therefore, it makes sense to draw the conclusion that the current wave in China is highly unlikely to spark a new national wave in India if we interpret the epidemiological, virological, and immunological evidence, supplemented by the data from genomic and wastewater surveillance, as well as the trend in reported cases and deaths in India.
But care must be taken if the Covid virus is to be stopped from spreading:
- The necessity to get ready for the “possible” future wave depends on opinion and individual interpretations of the historical evidence.
- On the basis of the current claim that “the next 40 days will be critical” in India, the patterns of previous Covid waves are extrapolated.
- For illnesses that have the potential to become epidemics, the “context” is essential. Three years into the pandemic, the situation has changed, making it impossible to make sound decisions based on historical tendencies.
- The solution must now be grounded in science, supported by all pertinent information, and take into consideration the lessons discovered. It must be tactful and situational.
- It is unlikely that Covid will ever completely disappear, yet it is still there today. Waves and spikes (localised or at the country level) would continue to happen at random intervals in different parts of the world even after the pandemic is over.
Conclusion:
- India and other countries ought to be prepared for such an event. As of right now, it doesn’t seem like there are any restrictions of any type, including any that call for wearing masks, extensive testing, or physical separation.
- The government needs to put Covid-19 in the same category as other respiratory infections because it has spread throughout India over the past few months. Furthermore, now is the ideal time for India to develop a “Covid-19 endemic stage reaction strategy” based on data.
