The new give and take
Present circumstances:
- In a recent speech to a joint session of the US Congress, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi alluded to China’s sway over the Indo-Pacific by referring to “the dark clouds of coercion and confrontation…casting their shadow on the Indo-Pacific.”
Historical events that are comparable:
- Similar conditions existed in early April 1942, when imperial Japan destroyed the British Eastern Fleet, attacked Malaya, Singapore, and Burma in search of a “greater Asia co-prosperity sphere,” lost the aircraft carrier HMS Hermes off the coast of Ceylon.
- As Japanese aircraft touched down near the ports of Visakhapatnam and Kakinada on the nation’s east coast, India began to prepare for an invasion.
- Franklin Roosevelt, the terrified US president, pleaded with Churchill earnestly but in vain to give India dominion status out of concern that India would no longer be able to make a meaningful contribution to the Allied war effort.
- Additionally, he extended the “lend-lease” programme to India, through which it received industrial supplies for its ports, railroads, and ordnance factories in addition to military equipment. India offered $280 million in rations, goods, services, and real estate as payment to the American and Kuomintang Chinese forces stationed in Bihar.
History repeats itself, although not in exactly the same way:
- After 80 years, China, a second rising Asian hegemon, is aiming to increase its sway over the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
- Will the United States and India work together in a “lend-lease” manner and consent to share logistics, repair, and maintenance facilities, rewriting a “historic rhyme” in the process?
- Due to China’s use of the Maritime Silk Road and the Belt and Road Initiative to deceive underdeveloped nations through “debt diplomacy” and hide its ultimate goal of regional dominance.
- In its claims of sovereignty over a portion of the South China Sea (SCS), which it bases on the fictitious “9 dash line,” in its dispute with Japan over islands in the East China Sea, and in its unauthorised building and militarization of artificial islands in the SCS, China’s intentions are clear.
- The most explosive and long-lasting threat to regional stability comes from Beijing’s desire to forcibly “reunite” Taiwan with mainland China.
In order to resist Chinese hegemony, bilateral connections between India and the US are crucial:
- The Dalai Lama’s appeal for asylum in 1959 and China’s occupation of Tibet, in India’s opinion, are to blame for the current Sino-Indian conflict. The only thing that came out of the 1962 India-China War was the unusual “line of actual control” (LAC). T
- Over the past few years, Chinese aggressiveness along the LAC has grown, and the nation still refers to Arunachal Pradesh as “Southern Tibet.”
- Due to China’s rising economic, military, and technical disparity with India, as well as the formation of a potentially deadly military axis between China and Pakistan, India is in a difficult situation.
- However, given that it is a democracy, a nuclear-armed state, and a substantial economic, military, and demographic force, India must take a stance against its dominant neighbour even if China now has a significant advantage in the power equation.
- The transfer of cutting-edge technology and basic agreements between the United States and China will therefore help India restrain China.
- as an example. The HAL-General Electric agreement, which is flexible and can be changed as needed, would strengthen India’s military prowess through the co-production of the F-414 turbojet, the provision of armed MQ-9B drones, cooperation in the semiconductor industry, and cooperative space exploration.
- The US, for its part, has regarded India as the world’s most populous nation and a strong Asian force that governs vital waterways in the Indian Ocean.
Moving forward:
- It should never be forgotten that we failed to make sure that our technological fraternity learned how to design, develop, or innovate independently. We obtained licences to manufacture tens of thousands of aeroplanes, aero engines, ships, tanks, diesel engines, and electronic/avionic gadgets domestically.
- This time, we need to make clear promises to ensure that technical staff receives “value addition” in the form of critical technological skills and knowledge.
- Last but not least, the so-called “foundational agreements” provide for significant military reciprocity in a number of areas, with India being expected to give as much as it receives.
