Census Matters
Context:
- India aims to have a $10 trillion GDP by 2035. The population Census, which was supposed to take place in 2021 but has been postponed indefinitely due to Covid, must be conducted in order to accomplish this.
- India has held censuses continuously since 1881, with the unusual exceptions of Assam in 1981 and Jammu & Kashmir in 1991 because of sociopolitical unrest and secessionist movements. India has taken pride in conducting routine censuses at the subnational and national levels. It must continue till India has a solid civil registration system and national demographic register.
Why has a census become a prerequisite for economic expansion?
- There are several explanations for why holding a Census has turned into a prerequisite for economic development.
- The main challenge demographers, planners, and other stakeholders today face is how to estimate the district population, which is the primary administrative unit for governing, planning, and implementing government programmes and schemes.
- In the absence of current Census data, demographers estimate the annual population count at the district level using prior Census data for the intercensal or postcensal era.
- The population of a district in India in 2015 is predicted using the district-level population growth rate between the 2001 and 2011 Censuses.
- Such demographic exercises produce estimates that are reasonably accurate when the population estimation year is within a range of no more than 10 years.
- Beyond this point, estimates could be wrong due to the dynamic patterns of numerous population components, including migration, mortality, and fertility, especially at the district level.
Districts must change for better planning and welfare programme execution:
- Numerous Indian areas are experiencing a rapid demographic transition as a result of variable fertility and mortality rates.
- By extrapolating the growth rate from 2001 to 2011 to the years beyond 2021, a model that relies more on assumptions than on empirical fact is produced.
- The scenario gets even more difficult as Covid-19 affects the nation’s fertility and mortality rates.
- Since many states (and districts) lack a full civil registration system that includes a complete count of birth and death data, demographers have a very difficult time producing population counts at the district level.
- Estimates usually fall far short of reality for the aforementioned reasons, especially for recently established states and districts.
Migration data gathered by the Census has substantial effects on social cohesion and economic activity:
- As India’s economy has grown, its migratory patterns—both domestically and internationally—have seen considerable changes.
- For instance, even in smaller towns and cities, job patterns have changed.
- The migration patterns in India for the last ten years are very different from what the data from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses indicate. Due to the paucity of Census data, it is difficult to draw generalisations about migration in India.
The census helps us comprehend India’s diversity better:
- Regardless of location, class, colour, creed, religion, language, caste, marital status, number of people with disabilities, occupation, etc., everyone is counted in the census.
- Most national-level surveys, including the NFHS and NSSO, lack representative data at the level of demographic subgroups, in contrast to the Census.
- The existence of different religions and languages, as well as the expansion or contraction of such communities, can only be determined by a population census.
Conclusion:
- Planning at the village or block level requires census data in order to foster economic and social development, provide better governance, and boost the transparency of governmental plans and initiatives.
- The population census is a significant task, but it is necessary for effective government operation.
- But the Census is crucial because it forms the basis for all of the government’s objectives and initiatives. Any delay in the Census will have negative immediate and long-term implications on India.
- The government and other stakeholders should move swiftly in order to conduct the Census as soon as is practical.
