05 May 2023

DAILY QUESTIONS & MODEL ANSWERS

Q1. At the regional and local levels, monsoon predictions are becoming more complex due to climate change. Give a brief explanation of how the Monsoon mission will advance knowledge of the phenomenon in this context. (250 Words)

Paper & Topic: GS I – Geography

Model Answer:

Introduction:

• Modern weather and climate prediction models were created as part of the Monsoon Mission by the Ministry of Earth Sciences and are currently in use. These models cover seasonal (up to one season), extended range (10 days to 30 days), and short to medium range (1 to 10 days). Over the past three years, the models created as part of the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) have demonstrated exceptionally high proficiency in forecasting significant weather events on various time scales.
• With climate change, it is getting harder and harder to anticipate when the monsoon will arrive and other seasonal whims.

Body:

Climate change and monsoon forecasting problems:

• Scientists have been able to reconstruct the behavior of the monsoon during the past 60 years with the help of the climate and rainfall records that are accessible in India, and the results have been complex and surprising.
• However, with climate change and occurrences like La Nina and El Nino, it is getting harder to predict weather conditions like cloudbursts and other phenomena.

Concerning the National Monsoon Mission:

• In 2012, the National Monsoon Mission was initiated.
• It attempts to provide a cutting-edge dynamical monsoon rainfall prediction system on various time scales.
• The Ministry of Earth Sciences is in charge of the mission.
• The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, is charged with carrying out and organizing the mission.
• The fundamental modeling system for long-range forecasting (seasonal prediction of the Indian Monsoon) has been recognized as the Climate Forecast System (CFS) of NCEP, USA. Additionally, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), UK, has identified the Unified Model (UM) for short- to medium-range prediction.
• Targets: Development of a seamless prediction system using monsoon mission model, on different time scales, like Seasonal (for whole Monsoon season), Extended range (up-to 4 weeks), Short range prediction (up-to 5days).
• Establish and oversee a collaboration between Indian and foreign institutions to create a framework for extreme weather and climate applications.
• Create and execute a system for climate applications that have an impact on society, such as those related to agriculture, flood forecasting, predicting extreme occurrences, wind energy, etc.
• High quality data are prepared for model predictions using an advanced data assimilation system.

Significant successes as a result of the monsoon mission:

• Setting up of an advanced prediction system for Seasonal prediction; Extended range prediction and Very high-resolution Short-range prediction.
• Commissioning of a Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) for short and medium range prediction at 12km.
• The Cyclone track and intensity prediction has also shown a steady improvement over the last three years.
• The operationalization of Monsoon Mission dynamical model (MMCFS) to prepare operational seasonal forecast of monsoon rainfall and temperatures during the hot and cold weather seasons over India.
• Use of MMCFS and extended range prediction system for preparing regional seasonal forecast outlook for south Asia under WMO recognised Regional Climate Center and South Asia Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF)activities.
• Development of an algorithm to monitor and predict the Monsoon Intra-seasonal Oscillations (MISO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the extended range.
• Development of an index to predict the genesis and evolution of tropical cyclones and other cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean.
• Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast over all the Indian river basin have been operationally implemented.
• Probabilistic (percentile based) forecast for extreme wind, precipitation have been established.
• GFS/GEFS forecasts have been extensively used to provide guidance to Forest fire possibility and also to Renewable Energy Sectors namely, wind and solar.
• Development of a high-resolution regional re-analysis product, IMDAA at very high resolution of 12km.

Conclusion:

• Several scientists have been trained for modelling & forecasts through Monsoon Mission Program and capacity building activities have been done through targeted trainings. A remarkable improvement in the skill of the forecasts especially in the short to medium range has been noticed.

Q. The anti-defection law that was designed to eliminate political defection, is rather being misused to facilitate defection. Do you agree? Comment (250 Words)

Paper & Topic: GS II – Election-related issues

Model Answer:

Introduction:

• Defection is “desertion by one member of the party of his loyalty towards his political party” or basically it means “When an elected representative joins another party without resigning his present party for benefits”. The institutional malaise is defection and party-hopping is state- neutral, party-neutral, and politics-neutral.
• Thus, in 1985, to curb the evil of political defections, the 52nd constitution amendment act on Anti-defection law was passed and the 10th Schedule was added in the Indian Constitution. The main intent of the law was to combat “the evil of political defections” which may be due to reward of office or other similar considerations.

Body:

Background and deviation from the Anti-defection law:

• The former members of the Congress Legislature Party (CLP) in the Goa assembly who switched parties to the BJP are exempt from disqualification under paragraph 4(2) of the Constitution’s Tenth Schedule, also known as the anti-defection law, according to the High Court of Bombay at Goa in its ruling from February 25.
• Under this provision, for a member to seek exemption from disqualification, the merger of the original political party has to take place first, followed by two-thirds of the MLAs agreeing to such merger.
• The words “such merger” make it clear beyond any shadow of doubt that the merger of the original political party has to take place before two-thirds of the members agree to such a merger.
• The HC seems to have missed the significance of the words “such merger”. In fact, the members of the legislature cannot agree among themselves to merge as the court has said, but they can agree to a merger after it takes place.
• The anti-defection law was designed to eliminate political defection. However, the judgment of the Bombay HC seems to assume that paragraph (4) of the 10th schedule is meant to facilitate defection. This judgment is likely to open the flood gates to defection.

Criteria for merger to be not considered as defection:

• Merger alone is insufficient: The opening phrase of sub-paragraph (2), “for the purposes of sub-paragraph (1) of this paragraph,” makes it clear that a merger of two political parties is insufficient to exempt a member from exclusion due to defection and to take into account this member’s claim that he has joined the party with which the merger has occurred.
• Not less than 2/3rd members should also agree: Not less than two-thirds of the members should also agree to such a merger.

Steps to be taken:

• Intra-party democracy: 170thLaw Commission report underscored the importance of intra-party democracy by arguing that a political party cannot be a dictatorship internally and democratic in its functioning outside.
• Thus, the parties should listen to the opinions of the members and have discussions on the same. This would give the freedom of speech and expression to its members and promote inner-party democracy.
• Nonpartisan authority: Several commissions, such as the National Commission to Review the Working of the Constitution (NCRWC), have recommended that the decision to disqualify a member be made by the President (in the case of MPs) or the Governor (in the case of MLAs), on the advice of the Election Commission, rather than the Presiding Officer.
• Independent committee for disqualification: Justice Verma in Hollohan judgment said that tenure of the Speaker is dependent on the continuous support of the majority in the House and therefore, he does not satisfy the requirement of such independent adjudicatory authority.
• Also, his choice as the sole arbiter in the matter violates an essential attribute of the basic feature.
• Thus, the need for an independent authority to deal with the cases of defection.
• Limiting Speaker’s discretion: Recent Supreme Court Judgement ruled that Speaker must decide on disqualification within three months of receiving application. It cannot be the discretion of the Speaker to take no action.
• To be used for major decision making: Several experts have suggested that the law should be valid only for those votes that determine the stability of the government. e.g. passage of the annual budget or no-confidence motions as recommended by Dinesh Goswami Committee.

Conclusion:

• There is a need to prevent unholy defections that lead to instability in the governance system of the nation. The current law is clearly flawed and has not effectively curbed defection due to lure of power and money. There is a need for a more rationalised version of anti-defection laws which will help establish a truly representative democracy.